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610 sqmi Burro Creek nr Bagdad, AZ

Nexrad 5-Minute Radar Desert Rainfall-Runoff Comparisons in Real-Time
With Radar   1-HR  DAILY  2-HR Ratio Adjustments
and Contiuous SCS Curve Number Method

July 1, 2014 to Jan 17, 2019.

Beginning Oct 2015 Adjacent Gaged 19.1 sqmi Basin Little Sycamore Creek Added

 

This is a study to see if the results shown in my Arizona study for this basin can be improved by subdividing the 610 sqmi basin into 5 sub-basins and also to show that my continuous Curve Number loss method can produce successfull results (OR NOT) this far from radars and with very sparse rain gages.  Quite a challenge.   A composite of all nearby radars was compared to the nearest to see if that helps (OR NOT).  The Burro Creek USGS flow gage is not the best either with A LOT of shifting control.  Burro Creek at the USGS gage near Bagdad, AZ goes to zero flow for a few months most years in late spring and resumes flows with the summer monsoons beginning in July. 

 

source:  Intellicast/Wunderground

NOAA radar  loop above. 

 

Below is my GetNexrad N0Q radar area 114 miles southeast of the ESX radar, Wundergages (white), adjusted N0Q radar (red) at watersheds, computed runoff (blue, and USGS gage flow (violet) over the Burro Creek 5 sub-basins.  Displayed values for rain gages and adjusted radar (W/O forecast) are yesterday and today's sum, other datatypes numbers display yesterday and today's max value in the rdaymax table.  Missing data for rainfall and radar is 40 minutes old and others are 240 minutes old (USGS lag) and the displayed values will be colored orange but thumbnail plots remain the same color.  I won't be retrieving radar for clear skies.  5-minute radar N0Q cells are 0.57 x 0.70 miles (1km x 0.5 dBZ).  Note that because the large distances between rain gages, up to 56 miles, I decided to use a 1-hour DAILY 2-hour ratio of Gage/Radar daily rainfall average at now 4 gages.  The Mean Absolute Error % is shown on thr hourly gage and radar graphs is a gage weighted MAE= Sum G*|G-R| / Sum G*G when gage or radar > 0.05".

 

Update 9/11/2014:  I have gone to a 2-hour G/R ratio instead of Daily and restarted everything from July 1.  On August 26  I had to intervene and mannually set the G/R ratio to 1.5 because of missing Bagdad raingage data to get the soil moisture back on track.  The daily or 2-hour gage/radar ratios are used instead of a normal1-hour because of the long distances to the rain gages. Update 8/9/2016:  Forget it, I've gone back to 1-hour raios.  Update Sep 7, 2016: The unadjusted new PTA storm total dual pole QPE algo product is showing remarkable results this far out and may be a keeper but time will tell. No more frozen rain gages if it holds up.

  

Update Aug 8, 2016:  I have added snowmelt computation elevation bands to each subbasin.  Each elevation band is 1000 feet.  This means snowmelt is computed separately for each zone and then area fraction summed for subbasin melt.  Subs 2, and 3 have 3 zones, and subs 1, 4, 5 and L Sycamore have 2 zones.  The same precip is assumed to fall on each elevation zone as the subbasin radar average.  I don't know if this was needed but seemed like a good idea.  Snowmelt is VERY temperature and longwave sensitive... VERY!!!  The temperature gage at elevation 5500 ft is lapse rated 3.5 F/1000ft to each band but not longwave nor other parameters so far.

 

CONCLUSIONS Jan 1 2017:

The rain gages are just too far from the 610 sqmi basin for reliable radar adjustments.  Also the reliable temperature gage for snowmelt calcs is also too far from the basin.  This study will continue in case a Wunderground rain gage comes online with in the basin to verify expected improvement.  But for now this study is a cautionary tale of a large basin with no rain gages with in it and shows the limit of radar rainfall adjustements.  The adjacent 19 sqmi Little Sycamore basin has 2 USGS rain gages with in it and shows that composite radar rainfall at these distances can be successfully adjusted... maybe... sometimes.

 

Next up is to try the MRMS Multi Radar Multi Sensor product from NSSL A2M. A2M is a 1-km 2-minute rainfall rate with 255 values. The setup site_name is A2M-ESX (for ESX radar) and uses the Iowa map cutting service for the same area as NCQ.  The A2M rainfall will NOT be gage adjusted.

 

Using A2M Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Rain Rate for the 2018 summer shows very good results... better even than adjusted NCQ ( NCQ composite of N0Q seems to have problems over Little Sycamore to the south where the Phoenix radar takes over(?) and is adjusted with Las Vegas radar at the rain gages(?) or something). Anyway, the A2M is working GREAT!!! Now if it would only rain/snow in the winter here for confirmation of A2M's greatness. But...

 

Update Jan 17, 2019:  The unadjusted A2M Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Rain Rate is a complete bust for winter rainfall.  The adjusted NCQ radar is WAY better for winter even with it's VERY poor rain gage location distribution.  I think I've seen enough of A2M and don't recomend it.  Study terminated.

 

 My A2M was a complete dud in New York state here: http://getmyrealtime.com/Runoff_OneidaCrNY.aspx

 

And PTA really is no help at these distances.  Get back in the lab NWS... you're peddeling roses (see A2M):

 

 

Automated graphs and radar updates:     

 

 

 

Beginning Oct 7, 2015 radar product NCQ Iowa Composite of all nearby radars will be used.  Once the temperatures start dropping the ESX radar cannot see the lower statiform rainfall and you can't adjust zero radar.  ESX is 100 to 125 miles from the basin.  Why the other radars can see better I don't know.  Ah, the Las Vegas and Phoenix radars are both 124 miles from Bagdad but Vegas mid-beam scan is at 19,400 ft vs Phoenix at 16,000 ft.  Flagstaff radar is actually a bit closer but scans at 20,000 ft  Along the basin centroid distance both Vegas and Phoenix radars are scanning at the same 18,000 ft.  So it's probably a hodge podge of radars being composited adding more guestions for adjusting with rain gages so far apart.  Time will tell. 

 

One finding is tha the N0Q ESX radar adjusted with only a rain gage at the farthest distance will (may) overestimate the basins nearer to the radar and significantly exceed the ajusted NCQ radar for those nearer basins so contrary to what I thought, that's a plus for NCQ.  Also the 2-hour ratio is significantly worse than a 1-hour ratio adjustment for the basin the gage was in.  Win some lose some.  I tried the Day, 2-hour, and 1-hour ratio and conclude that the 1-hour is best so this concludes the matter.

 

White rain gages ON, black OFF, and red basin adjusted radar are for yesterday and today thru now (no forecast).  The two rain gages north of highway I-40 are not being used.  Blue values are peak flows for yesterday and today.  Violet value is USGS flow gage peak.  Plot boxes are hourly values for yesterday and today.  Orange values are more than  30 minutes old.

 

Radar Iowa Composite NCQ of nearby radars:

  

Unadjusted MRMS product A2M is also being tried for these long distances:

 

 

 

Real-time rain gages in the Burro Creek area (not all used):

(dead) MQGDA3; 10343; Rainfall; Goodwin Mesa nr Bagdad, AZ

KAZSELIG1; 10345; Rainfall; Sierra Verda #1

KAZSELIG4; 10346; Rainfall; Sierra Verda #2

(dead) MCPWA3; 10338; Rainfall; Camp Wood

KAZBAGDA2; 10353; Rainfall; Bagdad

KAZSELIG5; 10355; Rainfall; Fort Rock

(too far) KAZKINGM9; 10356; Rainfall; Peacock Mtn

KAZPRESC90; 10358; Rainfall; LV Ranch

(too far?) 09424900; 10336; Rainfall; Santa Maria River USGS

09424450; 10320; Rainfall; Big Sandy USGS

09502800; 10380; Rainfall; Williamson Wash USGS

343257113032800; 10357; Rainfall; Little Sycamore Wash USGS

343415113040300; 10359; Rainfall; Upper Little Sycamore Wash USGS

 

 

NWS Forecasts for Burro Creek (beginning July 2016):

Both I and the NWS stage should compare well on forecasts because the same forecast is used, but for current peaks, then who has the best adjusted radar product will start to show.  This huge basin is miles from nowhere with sparsely located rain gages so NWS might have the better deal with their radar methods geared for large areas.... we'll see... but when it's raining at a gage, then it aint raining over the basin.  Note "Foecast (issued...)" time on graph below.  Also my 3-hour Nowcast is being compared to my distributed NWS 6-hour forecast on my web page here and should easily out perform (usually) the NWS methods for the next hour or 2.  I'll try to keep track of some NWS current peaks a few hours out before lost to observed.  If the NWS has better luck with this basin than I've had, then I'll try one of their precip products or use an hourly product to adjust the 5-min radar instead of rain gages but what I've seen of PTA vs these gages they aint in the ballpark but sure make runoff look good... zero.

 

Update Jul 28, 2017:  Now besides the 3-hour Nowcast on NCQ and A2M made by moving the subs up wind for 3 hours and the NWS distributed 6-hr blocks for 7 days, the new HRRR 15-minute block 18 hour forecast is included for just 3 hours after the 3-hr Nowcast.  I don't think the NWS is using the HRRR forecast so I better watch out too.

 

Some Peak Stage Feet Comparisons (current zero flow rated GH 4.75 ft):

 

Date  USGSfinal  Issued GetRealtime  Issued NWS

2016/8/21 xxAM  4.75'  4:10PM 10.43' 7:00AM 4.80'  DIFF +5.28' +0.0'    Sub 1: 1.7" Nowcast hour 1

2016/8/21 xxAM  4.75'  5:10PM 6.04' 7:00AM 4.80'  DIFF +0.89' +0.0'    Sub 1: 0.5" final hourly

2016/8/21 xxAM  4.75'  6:10PM 6.34' 7:00AM 4.80'  DIFF +1.19' +0.0' nowcast hr1 G/R=1.1 final=0.3

(G & R minimums before ratio computed raised from 0.02" to 0.03" to help terrible nowcast.)

 

2016/8/27 5PM   4.75'  2:10AM 7.86' 2:10AM  4.80'  DIFF +2.71' +0.0'   Nowcasts for 2am,3am,4am

2016/8/27 5PM   4.75'  7:10AM 7.12' 7:00AM  >9.80'  DIFF +1.97' +5.0'   Nowcast MAE Hr 1,2,3

2016/8/27 5PM   4.75' 10:10AM 6.89' 7:00AM >9.80'  DIFF +1.74' +5.0'    32% 73% 48% final 0.39"

  

 

I don't think NWS updates their daily morning runoff forecast until something big so I can clean their clock till then?.... well that was wishful thinking.

 

NWS Forecast, HRRR 6-Hour, and GetRealtime 3-Hour Nowcast with Alert Triangle > 0.1"/hr:

 

Flood Stage at Burro Creek Gage NCQ=Blue, Gage=Pink, and A2M=Orange:

 

 

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More Current Info........

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GetGraphs Current Gage Rainfall and Radar (pink) used for adjustments (Yellow graphs are turned OFF):

 

GetGraphs Current Adjusted Radar and Unadjusted (pink):

 

GetGraphs Subbasin Adjusted Radar Rainfall Frequencies (blue) and Rain Depths (pink), Xscale in Minutes:

  

GetGraphs soil moisture:

 

GetGraphs snowmelt data:

 

USGS Gaged and Subbasin Runofff:

 

 

Prescott Arizona current conditions:

 

 

Current history, more below:

 

  

 

Adjacent 19.1 SqMi Little Sycamore Creek (USGS 09424600 flow gage in pink someday):

Computation of Manning's N=0.39 * S^0.38 * R^-0.16 for steep channels (and it looks it! 194 ft/mi)

S=0.03669, R=4.093 so N=0.088 at 4900 cfs, Lag=3.0 hrs.

I'll use Lag=4.0 hrs with Variable Lag as I think I did above and see how that goes for now.  Now all we need is for the USGS to start providing flows at this new gage and we shall see how we did here.  Unitil then, I used Google Earth for a slope conveyance rating just above the gage to estimate flows from bubbler G.H.

 

Update Feb 16, 2017:  USGS is now providing flows and will be used hence forth.

 

The USGS rain gage(s now 2) on Little Sycamore will be used to adjust the NCQ basin radar rainfall along with others, then the same ratio used for the 5 subs above will be used to adjust this L Sycamore sub and point rainfall at the gage to see how bad radar adjustments are at this distance.  Seems the USGS L Sycamore rain gage has been down for a month now and shows no signs of returning to service so we shall see.... ah, they changed the station ID number to a lat/long form so we're back in business.

Current flows.  No USGS flow rating yet, just a poor estimate from USGS GH.... USGS now reporting flows as of 2/16/2017.  I was OVER estimating flows by twice but I'll let them stand as history only.

More Little Sycamore history at bottom.

 

 

 

Long term rainfall, hourly runoff, and soil storage updated daily: 

 

Current Daily NCQ Composite Radar Rainfall Accumulations and A2M Jul 1, 2017 to...:

 

History Daily NCQ Composite Radar Rainfall Accumulations and PTA Jun 1, 2016 to...:

  

New NCQ composite of all nearby radars Oct 15, 2015 to Jul 2, 2016

New NCQ Composite of all nearby radars

 

Old N0Q radar

Old N0Q radar

 

Months 1 & 2 using 2-HR RATIOS of gages WoodCamp+Bagdad+BigSandy+SantaMaria:

 

Months 3 & 4 using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Months 5 & 6 using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Months 7 & 8 using 2-HOUR RATIOS:  The basin is just too far from the ESX radar for low winter storms and so suffers severe overshoot.  Using Iowa NCQ highest reflectivity from nearby radars is even worse.

 

Months 9 & 10 using 2-HOUR RATIOS:  The basin is just too far from the ESX radar for low winter storms and so suffers severe overshoot.  Using Iowa NCQ highest reflectivity from all nearby radars is even worse.

 

May & Jun 2015using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Jul & Aug 2015using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Sep - Nov 2015 using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Dec 2015 to using 2-HOUR RATIOS:

 

Jun 2016 to using 1-HOUR RATIOS:

 

History of Stage Error 2016:

Soil storage curve numbers for the Subbasins: 

(when the soil get's into the 80's you're sitting on a time bomb)

 

History of Little Sycamore Gage 2016:

  

  

  

*********** EARLY  RESULTS 8/26/2014 ********************

Just when things were looking so good until Aug 26, 2014, then the ESX radar shows dbz values as high as 75 dbz over the lower basin on Sub 5. The radar had a hail cap at 55 dbz so no problem I thought. So how come the USGS peak flow is 7,950 cfs and my adjusted radar says only 34 cfs. SNAFU and FUBAR to the max!!!... no matter what gage or gages are used in adjustments.

 

I tried raising the hail cap to 12.48 in/hr at 60 dbz (100-yr 5-min rain=1.04") and got the same results because of a lower G/R ratio adjustment.  I also tried raising the hail cap to 62 dbz at 18 in/hr with the same results. I also tried HOURLY G/R ratioing with same results.  The daily G/R ratio would need to be raised from my observed 0.38 to 1.5 in order to get the USGS reported flow peak.  Entirely possible but the Las Vegas ESX is so badly calibrated that the typical ratio is 0.5 in the Burro Creek area and 0.25 in the the nearer to radar site Las Vegas area.  The rainfall that produced the peak flow was mostly over Sub 5 and the radar's unadjusted rainfall for that hour was 1.70 inches and would therefor need to be 1.5*1.7 = 2.55 inches for the hour or about a 25 year 1-hour storm.  How I would ever get there is beyond me because the nearby Bagdad  Wundergage had a G/R ratio of 0.42 for the hour.  I will chalk it up to the crappy ill tempered Bagdad rain gage that probably missed half the storm.  The further away Big Sandy USGS rain gage ratio was 0.33 with only one radar dbz near hail at 53 dbz with 1/2 the rainfall as reported at Bagdad.  The USGS peak flow recession looks flawless so I don't expect the USGS to change the flow much if at all.  To update the soil moisture back into the ballpark for Sub 5, I set the August 26 G/R ratio to 1.5.

 

Bagdad Wundergage Aug 26, 2014 (Army COE operates this gage, really? why bother???...hey, it's free):

 

***********************************************

 

*********** RESULTS 9/9/2014 ********************

I tried all the combonations of gages, defualt ratios, curve numbers, and initial losses and could get good results only storm by storm.  I also tried hourly and 2-hourly ratios with good results some of the time.  I think the problem is the poor rain gages at Bagdad and Camp Wood and the quickly shifting G/R ratio both temporilly and spatially.  So I will just stick to daily ratios with poor gages and hope the winter storms are easier to deal with.  You just can't make a silk purse out of  this cow's rain gages.  The rain gages are just too far and just to wrong.  I can't even find Wood Camp and Bagdad gages in Google Earth visually so who knows their locations.  The hourly adjustments was a disastor, but the 2-hour G/R adjustment was a bit better than Daily so I have started over with 2-hr G/R ratios.

 

Update May 1, 2015:  Camp Wood, Goodwin Mesa, and Bagdad rainfall records are no longer available on Wunderground.  So now I'm relying on Sierra Verde #1, #2, and USGS Sandy River for gage/radar ratio adjustment.  Hopefully these 3 discontinued rain gages within the basin will return to service someday.

 

Update Jun 12, 2015:  USGS Little Sycamore Ceek rain gage added so 4 gages now availble for ratios.

 

Update Oct 1, 2015:  Wunerground rain gage LV Ranch KAZPRESC90 added but is pretty far east.

***********************************************

 

 

 

Background hydrology and runoff setups:

 

The radar range lines shown here are 100 and 125 miles from the ESX Las Vegas radar.

 

Annual peak flows at the USGS gage show where we are headed (yes I extended my Google xsec from the 10,000 cfs  routing ratings below out to 40,000 cfs and will redo if needed. You may be wondering why these extreme large peaks.  GetRealtime's snowmelt computations will be needed for winter rain on snow:

 

 

Burro Creek nr Bagdad annul flow Pearson III log stats: Mean=3.8436; StdDev=0.64138; Skew=-0.1661 used in GetGraphs P=X yrs above:

 

 

GetRealtime's setup wizard for Sub 2 and is similar to the other subs (note Base Flow, dry CN, Groundwater Loss Factor, Riparian Factor, ET Factore, and Interception Factor are all very unusual for dry desert basins):

 

 

ROUTINGS:

Subs 1 and 2 are combined and routed to Sub 3 and 4's outlets and combined.  Subs 1, 2,  3, & 4 are then routed to the USGS gage and combined with Sub 5.

 

Burro Creek Routing to USGS Gage at Highway

Get 4 -30361 Sub1

Get 4 -30362 Sub2

Combine

Route Muskingum-Cunge BurroCrXsecInSub4.Rat

Get 4 -30363 Sub3

Combine

Get 4 -30364 Sub4

Combine

Route Muskingum-Cunge BurroCrXsecInSub5.Rat

Get 4 -30365 Sub5

Combine

End

 

The first routing is for a channel slope of 55 feet per mile for 11.90 miles and the second routing channel slope is 32 ft/mi for 15.66 miles.  These steep slopes would cause hundreds of cascades to be needed with Modified Puls storage routings.  My free program ModPulXsec.exe was used to take the channel section stations, elevatations and convert to a Musking-Cunge rating with constant coefficients based on peak flow of period simulated.  The stationing and elevations were taken from Google Earth.  Here's a tip for estimating Manning's N for steep channel slopes > 10 ft/mile:  n = 0.39 * S^0.38 * R^-0.16 

 

Channel X-section station, elevations: 

 

Muskingum-Cunge rating to Sub 4 as Elev, Flow, K, X, Cascades:

Burro Cr Subs 1&2 to Sub 4 Outlet MuskingumCunge timestep=5 minutes
46 lines below

1693 0 0 0 100
1693.2 0.193 4.26 0.477 100
1693.4 1.22 4.31 0.466 100
1693.6 3.61 4.34 0.46 100
1693.8 7.77 4.36 0.456 100
1694 14.1 4.37 0.453 100
1694.2 20.7 4.42 0.444 100
1694.4 33 4.43 0.44 100
1694.6 51.6 4.44 0.439 100
1694.8 77.5 4.44 0.439 100
1695 112 4.44 0.439 100
1695.2 155 4.45 0.437 100
1695.4 209 4.45 0.437 100
1695.6 273 4.45 0.436 100
1695.8 349 4.37 0.435 98
1696 438 4.15 0.433 93
1696.2 556 3.65 0.436 82
1696.4 686 3.29 0.438 74
1696.6 829 3.02 0.437 68
1696.8 983 2.85 0.436 64
1697 1150 2.67 0.436 60
1697.2 1330 2.54 0.435 57
1697.4 1520 2.41 0.435 54
1697.6 1720 2.32 0.434 52
1697.8 1940 2.23 0.433 50
1698 2170 2.15 0.432 48
1698.2 2410 2.06 0.431 46
1698.4 2660 2.02 0.43 45
1698.6 2920 1.97 0.429 44
1698.8 3200 1.89 0.428 42
1699 3490 1.84 0.426 41
1699.2 3800 1.8 0.426 40
1699.4 4110 1.76 0.425 39
1699.6 4440 1.71 0.424 38
1699.8 4790 1.72 0.422 38
1700 5140 1.67 0.422 37
1700.2 5510 1.63 0.421 36
1700.4 5900 1.59 0.42 35
1700.6 6290 1.59 0.419 35
1700.8 6700 1.54 0.418 34
1701 7130 1.5 0.417 33
1701.2 7570 1.5 0.417 33
1701.4 8020 1.46 0.415 32
1701.6 8490 1.46 0.414 32
1701.8 8980 1.41 0.414 31
1702 9470 1.41 0.413 31
1702.2 9990 1.37 0.413 30
1702.4 10520 1.37 0.411 30
1702.6 11060 1.37 0.411 30
1702.8 11620 1.33 0.411 29
1703 12190 1.33 0.41 29
1703.2 12780 1.28 0.409 28
1703.4 13390 1.28 0.409 28
1703.6 14010 1.28 0.408 28
1703.8 14640 1.24 0.407 27
1704 15300 1.24 0.406 27
1704.2 15970 1.24 0.405 27
1704.4 16650 1.19 0.407 26
1704.6 17350 1.2 0.405 26
1704.8 18070 1.2 0.404 26
1705 18810 1.15 0.404 25
1705.2 19560 1.15 0.403 25
1705.4 20330 1.15 0.403 25
1705.6 21120 1.16 0.401 25
1705.8 21920 1.11 0.401 24
1706 22750 1.11 0.4 24
1706.2 23590 1.11 0.401 24
1706.4 24440 1.11 0.4 24
1706.6 25320 1.07 0.399 23
1706.8 26210 1.07 0.399 23
1707 27120 1.07 0.399 23
1707.2 28050 1.07 0.398 23
1707.4 29000 1.07 0.398 23
1707.6 29970 1.02 0.397 22
1707.8 30950 1.02 0.397 22
1708 31960 1.02 0.395 22

 

 

Muskingum-Cunge rating to USGS Gage with N=.040 as Elev, Flow, K, X, Cascades:

Burro Cr Subs 1, 2, 3, 4 to USGS gage
MuskingumCunge timestep=5 minutes
46 lines below
1693 0 0 0 100
1693.2 0.194 4.33 0.462 100
1693.4 1.23 4.42 0.443 100
1693.6 3.63 4.46 0.434 100
1693.8 7.83 4.5 0.427 100
1694 14.2 4.52 0.422 100
1694.2 20.8 4.59 0.407 100
1694.4 33.2 4.63 0.401 100
1694.6 52 4.63 0.4 100
1694.8 78.1 4.63 0.399 100
1695 112 4.64 0.399 100
1695.2 156 4.64 0.397 100
1695.4 210 4.65 0.397 100
1695.6 275 4.65 0.395 100
1695.8 352 4.66 0.394 100
1696 441 4.68 0.391 100
1696.2 560 4.65 0.396 100
1696.4 691 4.32 0.398 93
1696.6 835 3.99 0.397 86
1696.8 990 3.72 0.396 80
1697 1160 3.49 0.396 75
1697.2 1340 3.31 0.394 71
1697.4 1530 3.17 0.393 68
1697.6 1730 3.04 0.391 65
1697.8 1950 2.9 0.39 62
1698 2180 2.82 0.388 60
1698.2 2420 2.73 0.387 58
1698.4 2680 2.64 0.385 56
1698.6 2940 2.55 0.383 54
1698.8 3220 2.51 0.382 53
1699 3520 2.41 0.38 51
1699.2 3820 2.37 0.379 50
1699.4 4140 2.33 0.378 49
1699.6 4470 2.28 0.376 48
1699.8 4820 2.24 0.374 47
1700 5180 2.2 0.373 46
1700.2 5550 2.15 0.371 45
1700.4 5940 2.11 0.37 44
1700.6 6340 2.06 0.369 43
1700.8 6750 2.02 0.367 42
1701 7180 1.97 0.366 41
1701.2 7620 1.98 0.365 41
1701.4 8080 1.93 0.363 40
1701.6 8550 1.89 0.361 39
1701.8 9040 1.89 0.361 39
1702 9540 1.84 0.36 38

 

Little Sycamore Creek (No USGS flows yet)  

 

Little Sycamore Creek:  No USGS flow rating yet, just a poor estimate from USGS GH.

 

 

Elevation Snowmelt Banding Seup begun Aug 8, 2016:

********; *********; *********; ****SUB 1 SNOWMELT************************* SNOWMELT-unit; 11491,-23491; Melt, Swc; 4000FT Burro Cr Sub 1 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11591,-23591; Melt, Swc; 5000FT Burro Cr Sub 1 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 0, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

********; *********; *********; ****SUB 2 SNOWMELT*************************

SNOWMELT-unit; 11492,-23492; Melt, Swc; 4000FT Burro Cr Sub 2 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11592,-23592; Melt, Swc; 5000FT Burro Cr Sub 2 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 0, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11692,-23692; Melt, Swc; 6000FT Burro Cr Sub 2 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; -3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

********; *********; *********; ****SUB 3 SNOWMELT*************************

SNOWMELT-unit; 11393,-23393; Melt, Swc; 3000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 7, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11493,-23493; Melt, Swc; 4000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11593,-23593; Melt, Swc; 5000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 0, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

********; *********; *********; ****SUB 4 SNOWMELT************************* SNOWMELT-unit; 11394,-23394; Melt, Swc; 3000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 7, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11494,-23494; Melt, Swc; 4000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

********; *********; *********; ****SUB 5 SNOWMELT*************************

SNOWMELT-unit; 11295,-23295; Melt, Swc; 2000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 10.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11395,-23395; Melt, Swc; 3000FT Burro Cr Sub 3 Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 7, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

********; *********; *********; ****L Sycamore SNOWMELT*************************

SNOWMELT-unit; 11396,-23396; Melt, Swc; 3000FT L Sycamore Basin Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 7, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

SNOWMELT-unit; 11496,-23496; Melt, Swc; 4000FT L Sycamore Basin Snow Melt & Pack, AZ; 0; 3.5, 1, 0.75, 1, 1, 1, 1, 34

******; *******; *******; **********ARIZONA RUNOFF***********

COMPUTE-unit; -30491; Runoff; 4000FT Burro Creek Sub1 Esx; 0; 3.41, 50, 0.1, 0.01, 105, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 85, 50, 0.99, 0.7, 5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30591; Runoff; 5000FT Burro Creek Sub1 Esx; 0; 3.41, 50, 0.1, 0.01, 51, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 85, 50, 0.99, 0.7, 5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30361; Runoff; Burro Creek Sub1 Esx; 0; 0; P1+P2

******; *******; *******; *********************

COMPUTE-unit; -30492; Runoff; 4000FT Burro Creek Sub2 Esx; 0; 3.18, 50, 0.1, 0.01, 39.672, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 85, 50, 0.99, 0.7, 5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30592; Runoff; 5000FT Burro Creek Sub2 Esx; 0; 3.18, 50, 0.1, 0.01, 98.154, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 85, 50, 0.99, 0.7, 5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30692; Runoff; 6000FT Burro Creek Sub2 Esx; 0; 3.18, 50, 0.1, 0.01, 33.174, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 85, 50, 0.99, 0.7, 5, 0.7, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30362; Runoff; Burro Creek Sub2 Esx; 0; 0; P1+P2+P3

******; *******; *******; *********************

COMPUTE-unit; -30393; Runoff; 3000FT Burro Creek Sub3 Esx; 0; 6.41, 52, 0.1, 0.01, 46.035, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 86, 52, 0.997, 0.85, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30493; Runoff; 4000FT Burro Creek Sub3 Esx; 0; 6.41, 52, 0.1, 0.01, 62.465, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 86, 52, 0.997, 0.85, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30593; Runoff; 5000FT Burro Creek Sub3 Esx; 0; 6.41, 52, 0.1, 0.01, 46.5, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 86, 52, 0.997, 0.85, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30363; Runoff; Burro Creek Sub3 Esx; 0; 0; P1+P2+P3

******; *******; *******; *********************

COMPUTE-unit; -30394; Runoff; 3000FT Burro Creek Sub4 Esx; 0; 2.32, 57, 0.1, 0.3, 16.1, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 87, 55, 0.997, 0.9, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30494; Runoff; 4000FT Burro Creek Sub4 Esx; 0; 2.32, 57, 0.1, 0.3, 30.0, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 87, 55, 0.997, 0.9, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.05, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30364; Runoff; Burro Creek Sub4 Esx; 0; 0; P1+P2

******; *******; *******; *********************

COMPUTE-unit; -30295; Runoff; 2000FT Burro Creek Sub5 Esx; 0; 2.60, 57, 0.1, 0.5, 44.0, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 87, 55, 0.997, 0.9, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.04, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30395; Runoff; 3000FT Burro Creek Sub5 Esx; 0; 2.60, 57, 0.1, 0.5, 38, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 87, 55, 0.997, 0.9, 5, 0.85, 0.1, 0.04, 1.00, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; Triangle Unit Graph

COMPUTE-unit; -30365; Runoff; Burro Creek Sub5 Esx; 0; 0; P1+P2

******; *******; *******; *********************LITTLE SYCAMORE******************

COMPUTE-unit; -30396; Runoff; 3000FT Little Sycamore Creek; 0; 1.5, 32.5, 0.1, 0.5, 19.1, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 92, 65, 1, 0.9, 10, 0.7, 0.1, 0.03, 0.5, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30496; Runoff; 4000FT Little Sycamore Creek; 0; 1.5, 32.5, 0.1, 0.5, 19.1, 1, 0.1, 0.3, 3, 0.3, 6, 92, 65, 1, 0.9, 10, 0.7, 0.1, 0.03, 0.5, 0, 0.1, 1, 0.85, 0, LagV; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30371; Runoff; Little Sycamore Creek; 0; 0; P1+P2

 

 

More runoff to come....

 

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of techniques in flood potential monitoring. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know.  


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