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54 sqmi Rapid Creek above Canyon Lake Dam, SD

Continuous Nexrad Radar  Rainfall-Runoff with Forecast Comparisons in Real-Time
With Radar Hourly Ratio Adjustments
and Snowmelt Provided by GetRealtime

June 10, 2019 to ... currently running.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current NOAA N0R radar lite gif above with Slate Creek Basin overlay.  Below is zoomed N0Q hi-res Rapid City UDX radar, Wundergages, and adjusted N0Q at watersheds.  Note that the raw N0Q radar here almost always shows "ground clutter" because of being so close to the radar site. Ground clutter (0.05" to 0.1" a day) is just another simple matter that rain gage adjustment removes.  No rain at the rain gages for the hour then no radar rain.  Also ground clutter disappears when the radar is in rain mode.

 

The Rapid Creek basin was subdivided into 5 basins and channel routings were optimized step Modpul. Forecast scheduled release from Pactola Dam is the last hourly flow at the USGS gage right below the dam.  The June 10, 2019 Pactola Dam release was at a 14 year flood event (encroaching lake levels into flood control space).  GRT uses my continuous soil moisture adjsted SCS Curve Number method.  GRT model uses the Kansas monthly ET values distribued on an hourly basis over the year (ET is computed w and w/o gaged Solar for display only here but could have also been used.

 

 

Last model run info from database as text each run (GetFromAccessNOW.exe):     

 

 

National Weather Service Flood Stage Forecast:

 

Current NWS snowpack:

 

 

Current automated graphs and radar (updated when runoff)

 

Radar ratio adjusted rainfall and Wundergages (pink is second parameter referred to)  :

 

Stage from GRT Forecast and USGS Gage Rapid Cr above Canyon Lake Dam:

 

Upstream Pactola Lake Elevations:

 

Subbasin runoff (2nd parameter is pink):

 

Wundergages and radar ratio adjustment:

 

Meteorlogical data from Wundergages for snowmelt and evapotranspiration used by GRT:

 

Snowpack and soil moisture info used by GRT:

 

Pearson III Annual Peak Flow Distribution (regulated flow):

 

 

NOAA Atlas 14

PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES
by duration for ARI (years): 1 2 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000
5-min: 0.293 0.364 0.49 0.605 0.778 0.924 1.08 1.25 1.49 1.68
10-min: 0.43 0.533 0.718 0.886 1.14 1.35 1.58 1.83 2.18 2.46
15-min: 0.524 0.65 0.875 1.08 1.39 1.65 1.93 2.23 2.66 3.01
30-min: 0.712 0.883 1.19 1.47 1.9 2.25 2.63 3.05 3.64 4.12
60-min: 0.879 1.08 1.47 1.85 2.45 2.97 3.55 4.2 5.13 5.91
2-hr: 1.05 1.28 1.76 2.23 3 3.7 4.47 5.34 6.63 7.7
3-hr: 1.15 1.39 1.9 2.43 3.33 4.16 5.09 6.16 7.76 9.1
6-hr: 1.42 1.64 2.16 2.75 3.78 4.75 5.89 7.19 9.17 10.8
12-hr: 1.76 1.99 2.51 3.11 4.14 5.12 6.26 7.57 9.55 11.2
24-hr: 2.11 2.39 2.99 3.63 4.72 5.73 6.88 8.2 10.2 11.8
2-day: 2.28 2.77 3.67 4.52 5.82 6.94 8.15 9.48 11.4 12.9
3-day: 2.43 2.99 3.98 4.9 6.28 7.45 8.71 10.1 12 13.6

 

 

Routing file:

 

Pactola USGS scheduled release and combine with 5 subs

GET 4 -30425 Runoff Sub 5

RELEASE 1415 -1 get USGS release from rhour dsid hourly

ADD +1 remove release value times -1, use +1 to add

ROUTE Modpul RapidCr5_4XsecIn.Rat -1 optimal N cascades

GET 4 -30424 Runoff Sub 4

COMBINE

GET 4 -30423 Runoff Sub 3

COMBINE

ROUTE Modpul RapidCr3_2XsecIn.Rat -1 optimal N cascades

GET 4 -30422 Runoff Sub 2

COMBINE

ROUTE Modpul RapidCr2_1XsecIn.Rat -1 optimal N cascades

GET 4 -30421 Runoff Sub 1

COMBINE

ADD 150 base flow <<I'm working on this as groundwater return fraction (good luck)

END

 

 

Past runoff comparisons for the 5 subs and routed basin runoff:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of techniques in flood potential monitoring. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know.  

 

 

 


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