The 2015-2016 rainy season 5-minute NEXRAD N0Q radar, rain gages, and USGS data has been downloaded with my free GetRealtime and ran as history and runoff coefficients calibrated as best I can without looking at each event's rain gages.  Next year the rain gages will be monitored and coefficents updated as needed.  So here is the history's initial calibration......

The basin above the USGS streamgage 11456000 NAPA R NR ST HELENA, CA was subdivided into 4 subbasins using my free GetMapArea:

Sub 1:  Above Lillie Street above Calistoga - 22.0 sqmi.

Sub 2:  Above Glass Mountain Road above Barro - 29.8 sqmi.

Sub 4:  Above Bell Canyon Dam above Barro - 5.87 sqmi.

Sub 3:  Above Pope Street at St Helena USGS gage - 23.7 sqmi.

As you can see I added Sub 4 after I thought the Bell Canyon Reservoir might need broken out and routed separately.  The reservoir capacity table was developed from the surface area using an estimated power curve of H^1.06.  So for 79 acres surface, at 1 ft depth, 79^1.06=103 so Storage=103*H^1.06.  For the spillway a 5 ft wide rectangle notch 2 ft high was guessed at (2*W*H^1.5) in a 80 ft long level ogee spillway (3*W*H^1.5) by a pretty poor viewing with Google Earth (but thanks be to shadows).  A 0.5 to 2 cfs water supply was diverted from the reservoir with a 7 ft drawdown available below the spillway.  All conjecture on my part.  As it turns out all probably unnessacary since I still had to construct a unit graph for the unusual amount of storage in the system.

The channel routings were cascading Modified Puls ratings using my free ModPulXsec with x-section data measured with Google Earth about midway in each reach.  The history runoff was run as one period so the optimized cascades were based on 2/3's of the peak flow for the year... so all is roughed in for now.  The model stage at the USGS gage is a lookup in the USGS rating.  The stage at Calistoga is a Google Earth'd  x-section as is my below Glass Mtn Road stage rating.  The bank full elevation is the flood 'Action Stage' at my ratings and the USGS gage rating 'Action Stage' is from the NWS who operate a continuous flood warning site here.

Let's see how we do.  This web page is automatically updated as my free GetRealime runs in unattended batch mode... when rain is in the area.  Next year's rainy season it will all be run in real-time and closely monitored for needed adjustments and hopefully better results.

Last real-time radar image monitoring with my free GetNexrad: (radar cells are 0.6 miles wide)

Intellicast big picture Current California Radar Loop:

Current real-time monitoring graphs with my free GetGraphs:

If you need data from the database sent to your web page sort of like this data table, then GetRealtime can shell my free GetFromAccessNow:

Alert triangles on NWS forecast > 0.1"/HR:

(all graphs pink colored series is the second source referred to so the pink here is raw radar w/nowcast)

(The Nowcasts will be evaluated on my web page here.  Nowcast removed here due to coastline.)

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More Current Info.....

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Winds Aloft are used in the 2-hour radar Nowcast:

The pic is on the nearby Russian River.

PART 2:  Longer Term Oct 1, 2016 to Jun 1, 2017:

PART 1:  2015-2016 Initial Calibrations:

Napa.DGF dimensionless unit graph computed for Feb 24, 2008.  It was the best stand alone event I found.  Even still I had to remove a lump caused by more unwanted rainfall.  There were over 400 , 15-Minute USGS flows for the period so after lump removal the 15-minute graph was interpolated to hourlys before de-dimensionalizing.  Could not you have just used hourlys to begin with???  Hmmm.... dont confuse me.

Interpoloate hourly with my free GetRegression for roughly 100 values in the unit graph construction:

A guesstimate of Bell Canyon Dam Storage and Release curves:

(I can see I didn't do this quite right, but you get the idea)

USGS Napa River at Saint Helena Gage Annual Peak Flow Normal Probability Distribution from my free GetRegression:  (because of high Log skew, normal used)  Flows below P=0.999 are shown as fraction of this flow value on GetGraphs Pyrs= so I'm not sure what I did for the 1 year flow here, certainly not a negative flow but so far seems reasonable???  Ah, because flows will always be zero or greater and within the 0.999 recurrance, no need for 1 year flow at all because all possible flows have recurrence greater than 1 year (zero flow has 1.03 year recurrance).  Did the lower zero bound cause the high LOG skew or is there still rain on snow to deal with???  The wiggly squigglys and those top 2 events are not encouraging.  On the other hand, a change in slope of plotting positions indicates a mixed poplulation, but I don't see that here, even after 75 years of record.

The 6-hour NWS forecasts are distributed to 5-minutes using my California distribution and thought that would fit in around here and nowcasts based on winds aloft are limited to 2 hours because of the radar/coast stratiform overshoot situation.  Depending of wind speed and direction, 2 hours is pushing it so you don't want to cancel out the NWS forecast values with bad radar.  Update Jan 5, 2017:  Nowcast removed because the radar cannot see past the coastline and was zeroing out the NWS forecast.

NOAA Atlas 14 used in frequency graphs above:

GetRealtime_setup.txt info:

Future Days=5

Percent Missing Allowed= 90%

Write Dailys= True

Write Hourly Avg= True

Write Daily Max= True

Write Unit Values= True

Write Unit Shifts= False

Overwrite Protected Source 5= True

Check for Possible Bad Values= False

Possible Bad Value Change= 200%

Last Runoff Run's Storage= True

Minutes between retrievals=60

Max hours of radar=4

Save Radar greater than= False

Beep on Save= True

Delete temporary internet files=True

Loop radar boundaries=True

Use Nexrad Ridge1 full web file listing=False

Use Nexrad short web file listing=False

Use Nexrad Ridge2 Iowa State Mesonet=True

Compact and Backup HDB at midnight= True

GetAccess.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETACCESS\

GetGraphs.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETGRAPHS\

GetNexrad.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETNEXRAD\

NowCast Info folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETNEXRAD\

Gage Avg OnOff folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETGRAPHS\

Radar Boundary File folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETREALTIME\BOUNDARIES\

Menu Pic=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETREALTIME\NAPA.JPG

Menu Text Color= 16035726

Minimize to System Tray=True

Column Widths=1305,615,2130,4725,555,4080,2205

Alert Address=

Alert Address CC=

Alert Address BCC=

Alert Start Time=-1

Don't Ask Questions=True

Create Winds Aloft graphic file=True

Metric Units=False

Database Connection String=Provider=Microsoft.Jet.OLEDB.4.0;Data Source=C:\GetProjects\GetNapa\GetAccess\GetAccessHDB_Napa.mdb;User Id=admin;Password=;

Station_ID; Datatype_Site_ID; Datatype_Name; Site_Name; base1; shift1; formula1; base2; shift2; formula2; base3; shift3; formula3

************; ************; ************; *****BBX RADAR*******

NEXRAD-DAX; -10101; Radar Rain; Napa River at Calistoga, CA; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10102; Radar Rain; Napa River above Glass Mtn Road, CA; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10103; Radar Rain; Napa River blw Pope Street St Helena, CA; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10104; Radar Rain; Blue Canyon Reservoir, CA; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10131; Radar Rain; Mountain Home Rd; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10132; Radar Rain; Montgomery Vineyards; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10133; Radar Rain; Glass Mountain; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10134; Radar Rain; Ehlers Lane; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10135; Radar Rain; Sharp Rd Ranch; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10136; Radar Rain; PU College; 1

NEXRAD-DAX; -10137; Radar Rain; Magnolia Oaks; 1

************; ************; ************; *****NWS Forecasts*****

FORECAST-NWS; -11101; Forcast Rain; Sub 1 Napa River at Calistoga, CA; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; -11102; Forcast Rain; Sub 2 Napa River above Glass Mtn Road, CA; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; -11103; Forcast Rain; Sub 3 Napa River blw Pope Street St Helena, CA; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; -11104; Forcast Rain; Sub 4 Bell Canyon Reservoir, CA; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; -11135; Forcast Rain; Gage Sharp Rd Ranch, CA; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; 17131; Forcast Temperature; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; 18131; Forcast Humidity; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

FORECAST-NWS; 28131; Wind Speed; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,4

************; ************; ************; *****Wundergages*******

KCACALIS7; 10131; Rainfall; Mountain Home Rd Solar

KCACALIS7; 18131; Humidity; Mountain Home Rd Solar

KCACALIS7; 29131; Solar Radiation; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 0; 2.065*P1

KCACALIS7; 27131; ET Grass; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,-120, 272,0.75

KCACALIS7; 17131; Temperature; Mountain Home Rd Solar

KCACALIS7; 28131; Wind Speed; Mountain Home Rd Solar

COMPUTE; -29131; Solar Radiation; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,-120, 272

COMPUTE; -27131; ET Grass; Mountain Home Rd Solar; 0; 38.531, -122.499,-120, 272,0.75

KCACALIS19; 10132; Rainfall; Montgomery Vineyards KCASAINT14; 10133; Rainfall; Glass Mountain

KCACALIS5; 10135; Rainfall; Sharp Rd Ranch KCAANGWI11; 10136; Rainfall; PU College

KCASAINT12; 10137; Rainfall; Magnolia Oaks KCASAINT7; 10134; Rainfall; Ehlers Lane Solar

**poor wind speed

KCASAINT30; 18134; Humidity; Ehlers Lane Solar

************; ************; ************; *****RATIO*******

COMPUTE-hour; 10121; Rainfall; Napa Avg Rain Gages; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -10121; Rainfall; Napa Avg Radars; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -31121; Ratio; Napa Avg Ratio; 0; 0.003,4,20; P1/P2

COMPUTE-hour; 10122; Rainfall; Napa Avg Rain Gages; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -10122; Rainfall; Napa Avg Radars; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -31122; Ratio; Napa Avg Ratio; 0; 0.003,4,20; P1/P2

************; ************; ************; *****Adjusted Rainfall*******

COMPUTE-unit; -11101; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 1 Napa River at Calistoga, CA; 0; -1, 4.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11102; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 2 Napa River above Glass Mtn Road, CA; 0; -1, 4.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11103; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 3 Napa River blw Pope Street St Helena, CA; 0; -1, 4.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11104; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 4 Bell Canyon Reservoir, CA; 0; -1, 4.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11135; Adj Radar Rain; Spring Mountain Gage, CA; 0; -1, 4.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

************; ************; ************; *****Runoff******

COMPUTE-unit; -30101; Runoff; Sub 1 Napa River at Calistoga, CA; 0; 8, 56, 0.1, 0.1, 22.05, 2.2, 0.07, 0.3, 4.5, 0.3, 8, 89, 56, 0.8, 0.25, 2.5, 0, .8, 0.03, 1.00, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, -1, LagV; P1; 0; NapaRiver.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30102; Runoff; Sub 2 Napa River above Glass Mtn Road, CA; 0; 9, 56, 0.1, 2, 29.76, 2.2, 0.07, 0.3, 4.5, 0.3, 8, 89, 56, 0.8, 0.25, 2.5, 0, 0.8, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; NapaRiver.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30103; Runoff; Sub 3 Napa River blw Pope Street St Helena, CA; 0; 9.5, 56, 0.1, 0.1, 23.71, 2.2, 0.07, 0.3, 4.5, 0.3, 8, 89, 56, 0.85, 0.25, 2.5, 0, 0.8, 0.03, 1.00, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; NapaRiver.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30104; Runoff; Sub 4 Napa River Into Bell Canyon Reservoir; 0; 3.5, 56, 0.1, 0.1, 5.869, 2.2, 0.07, 0.3, 4.5, 0.3, 8, 89, 56, 0.5, 0.25, 2.5, 0, 0.8, 0.03, 1.00, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 0; NapaRiver.DGF

************; ************; ************; *****Route******

ROUTE-unit; -1104; Flow; Route Bell Can Dam In And Out to Main

ROUTE-unit; -1102; Flow; Route Sub 1, Bell And Combine Sub 2

ROUTE-unit; -1103; Flow; Route Sub 1+2+Bell And Combine Sub 3

LOOKUP-Unit; -2101; Stage>-daymax-9ft_action,11ft_minor,13ft_moderate,15ft_major; Napa R at Calistoga

LOOKUP-Unit; -2102; Stage>-daymax-9ft_action,10ft_minor,11ft_moderate,12ft_major; Napa R below Glass Mtn Rd

Run-LOOKUP-Unit; -2103; Stage>-daymax-15ft_action,16ft_minor,18ft_moderate,19ft_major; Napa R at St Helna

************; ************; ************; *****Soil Moisture*****

COMPUTE-hour; -6101; Soil Runoff Fraction; Napa R at Calistoga Soil Flood Potential; 0; 0; 0; P2>0.2*P1; 0; 100*(P2-0.2*P1)^2/(P2+0.8*P1)/P2

COMPUTE-hour; -5101; SCS CN; Napa R at Calistoga Soil CN; 0; 0; 1000/(P1+10)

************; ************; ************; *****USGS*****

11456000; 1100; Flow; NAPA R NR ST HELENA, CA 11456000; 2100; Gage Height; NAPA R NR ST HELENA, CA

************; ************; ************; ***** Shell Pics To Web*****

**SET-INTERVAL; -11101; Forcast Rain; Aldridge Cr at Toney Basin, AL; +4,rhour; 60; P1>.001; 0; 30; P1>.2

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETNEXRAD\GetNexrad.exe -2 mypassword; 0; Pic; Pic of Radar; 0

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETGRAPHS\GetGraphs.exe 4 mypassword; 0; Graphs; Getgraphs to Web; 0

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETNAPA\GETGRAPHS\GetFromAccessNOW.exe rdaymax, 17131 10121 -10121 -11101 -10101 1100 2100 -2103 -1103, -2, 5, NapaNOW.txt, mypassword; 0; Flow Data to Web; Put Flow Data Text File on Web; 0

END

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of techniques in flood potential monitoring. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know.