August 1 to Sep 18, 2017:  5-minute NEXRAD N0Q radar, rain gages, and USGS elevation and release gages was downloaded with my free GetRealtime for both Addicks and Barker flood control reservoirs.  This period was run to adjust runoff coefficients to match USGS reservoir levels and releases.  These initial calibrations with 30" rainfall of Hurricane Harvey are discussed and shown at bottom.

Just below are current GetRealtime rainfall, lake levels, and my forecast releases for both Addicks and Barker reservoirs.  The reservoir releases are actively operated by USACE to minimize downstream flooding so take my rated release forecasts with a grain of salt.  The NWS and USACE consult for their downstream forecasts.  I'm not in their loop but I'll add the NWS forecast flow trace to my graph below when available.

The point here is to show reservoirs that do not have USACE/NWS consulted forecast releases can still be provided with flood forecasts given a guesstimate of a release rating. These two here are the most actively operated reservoirs that I have modeled, so smaller reservoirs also can be modeled with GetRealtime's Modpul reservoir techniques (see my Ashton OR irrigation reservoir and my Dalton GA 2 water supply and sportsman reservoirs web page examples... and Sonoma CA reservoir on my website map page.  If you want to operate Grand Coolee's powerhouse with GetRealtime then just shell Hec-ResSim.

Current NWS forecast of flow below both reservoirs includes 35 sqmi's of side inflow:

Model and NWS flood stage forecasts West Belt Drive:

Alert triangles on stage forecasts > 50 ft ... and can be emailed.

My release ratings are based on the Big One of 2017. Almost anything less can be stored so that only the 35 sqmi side inflow below the 2 reservoirs matter. Caveat emptor until full.  Just keeping you awake.

Looks like for less than hurricane size rainfalls, like the stalled Jun 20, 2018 Tropical Depression, in addition to GetRealtime routing option 'RELEASE 1410 -1 rhour' a low rated flow Modpul should normally be used to project last hours reservoir release for the next 7 days. One has to remember to use the high flow modpul rating for projections should a hurricane come into play. My current low flow modpul rating goes to hurricane levels above a selected high reservoir level (95 ft) so that may still be a good way to go.

Both Addicks (north reservoir) and Barker (south reservoir) basins were subdivided into 3 subs:

Addicks s411 reservoir water area, 21.20 sqmi.

Addicks s412 urban area, 63.94 sqmi.

Addicks s413 farm area, 48.27 sqmi.

Barker s421 reservoir water area, 19.31 sqmi.

Barker s422 urban area, 69.70 sqmi.

Barker s423 farm area, 45.20 sqmi.

Area below Dams at Beltway USGS gage s408, 35.0 sqmi. (NWS Flood Forecast Point)

Nine Wunderground rain gages were used to adjust the HGX radar N0Q product.  Several USGS rain gages are available for comparison but are not real-time and were not used.  I hope the basin size is not to large for a single or even 2 G/R ratios so we shall see.  Update Nov 1, 2017: The 2 G/R ratios seemed to be over estimating the adjusted radar rainfall so 5 G/R ratios are now being used with the 9 Wundergages as Sub 1's and below and each of the other 4 subs. (results much better)

Update 6/20/2018: The 5 ratios were replaced with 2 ratios, 9 Wundergages for Below Reservoirs and Subs 1 & 2 in both reservoirs. 5 Wundergages used for Subs 3 in both reservoirs. The period 6/9 to 6/20/2018 was rerun with very little difference. The adjusted radar (9 Wgages) at 5 USGS gages are now being evaluated instead of 2 USGS gages vs a whole subbasin with much better correlation but are still over estimating the USGS gages.  The single subbasin below the reservoirs probably need a separate ratio adjustment with 2 GOOD Wundergages will be looked at next but will be back where I started.

Update 12/08/2018:  The peak below the reservoirs was a 2000 year flood while the rainfall was a 3 year event.  Changing the Curve Number for the below res basin to match the peak was unrealistic.  Instead of using an off the shelf 35 sqmi basin boundary below the reservoirs, I re-digitized catchments with Google Earth Pro and and got a 22.4 sqmi subbasin. I lowered the Curve Number loss from 70 to 64 and increased the Clark unit graph storage factor from 1.5 to 3.5. Still needs broken in to 2 subs but that's another day.  Now the model matches the USGS peak and the 3 year rain produces a 6 year flood.  Also my basin total sqmi of 290 matches the USGS.

Last real-time radar image monitoring with my free GetNexrad:

(today and yesterday sums red=adj basin radar, white=Wundergages, orange=dead or USGS gages, black circled=turned OFF, violet=USGS max flow, blue=Model max flow, radar cells are 0.6 miles wide)

Intellicast big picture Current Texas Gulf Radar Loop:

If you need data from the database sent to your web page sort of like this data table, then GetRealtime can shell my free GetFromAccessNow:

Current real-time monitoring graphs with my free GetGraphs in my Pacific time:

Rainfall Forecasts:

The 6-hour block 7-day NWS forecasts are distributed to 5-minutes using my Vegas distribution and nowcasts based on winds aloft are limited to next 3 hours with 3 addionial hours using HRRR multi radar multi sensor radar forecasts.  My 3-hr Nowcasts are being evaluated on my web page here. 

Beltway gage flows P=annual flood recurrence interval in years:

(all graphs pink colored series is the second source referred to so the pink here is raw radar w/nowcast)

One of many Barker inflow channels:

(Tributary collector 1 mile upstream of Buffalo Bayou below Katy, flow away from camera...usually?)

Addicks forebay and tailrace:

Barker forebay and tailrace:

=========================================

More Current Info in my Pacific Time Zone.....

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Soil SCS curve numbers, total reservoir inflows, elevations, and forecast realeses:

Wundergages and raw radar rainfall with weighted mean absolute % error:

USGS raingages (not used) and raw radar and G/R adjustment ratios:

Adusted Radar Rainfall frequencies and depths at each subbasn:

Adjusted radar rainfall and forecast at the subbasins:

Longer Term Info Sep 1, 2018 to ... :

Hourly Adjusted 5 Point Radar vs 5 USGS Gage Average:

5 Point Adjusted Radar at Gages Avg vs 5 USGS Gage Avg:

Addicks Elevations and Releases...

Barker Elevations and Releases...

Beltway USGS gage w/NWS forecast and Routed Releases Forecast...

Longer Term Info Aug 1, 2017 to Sep 1, 2018:

Hourly Adjusted 5 Point Radar vs 5 USGS Gage Average:

5 Point Adjusted Radar at Gages Avg vs 5 USGS Gage Avg:

Addicks Elevations and Releases...

Barker Elevations and Releases...

Beltway USGS gage w/NWS forecast and Routed Releases Forecast...

Hurricane Harvey Calibrations Aug 1 to Sep 18, 2017

The elevation-release-capactiy tables for the 2 reservoirs were constructed (cough) using actual operation data for August 1 to Sep 18, 2017 USGS pool elevations and downstream flow stations.  The storage and release were used to calibrate the runoff coefficients for the 3 subbasins in each reaservoir.

Real-time forecasts of storage and release for the next 7 days by GetRealtime uses the actual starting pool elevation and current release if less than my constructed release rating here.  The intent is to use current USGS release value as next 7-day schedule but allow for higher forecast releases for forecast storm runoff inflow.  GetRealtime routings have several options on how to operate a Modpul rating with scheduling.

I would be happy to send anyone all my database data and setups if they would like to put some more refinement effort into any part of this for their own use.  I think the Barker calibrations worked out better because of possible less of less gage backwater.  You can see I never got all the rain volume that releases show out of Addicks.  Also I had to compute the missing Addicks releases for the peak period (I think the USGS is updating the rating and may fill it in so that might help a lot).

Update:  Now that I think about it, I was trying to kill 2 birds with one run... both calibrate the runoff inflows and develope a release rating.  I should have set the releases with my RELEASE method to use USGS actual releases to calibrate the runoff inflows to match pool elevations AND THEN run and jiggle the Modpul release rating to some what match the USGS elevs and releases.  Seems ok for now so there's always the next project... and Wunderground rain gage graph 6 below should have been turned off... do you see why?

Addicks Subbasin 1 adjusted and raw radar rainfall:

Wunderground rainfall gages and raw radar (uh oh, notice graph 6 TheShreerans NE gage was down):

USGS rainfall gages for comparison (not used) and raw radar:

3-day rainfall recurrences woooweeee!;  model and USGS reservoir releases:

Model soil, release, and reservoir elevation:

A guesstimate of  Addicks and Barker Release curves; Storage USACE Survey date 2008-10-01:

NON-Log Pearson III (logs were +6 skewed):

Texas has no Atlast 14 yet so this Atlas 14 table is for a point at the Louisana state border near Interstate 210.

Just over the LA border on the Freeway--Carson

Point precipitation frequency estimates (inches)

NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 9 Version 2

Data type: Precipitation depth

Time series type: Partial duration

Project area: Southeastern States

Location name (ESRI Maps): Vinton Louisiana USA

Station Name: - Latitude: 30.1395° Longitude: -93.6182°

Elevation (USGS): 2.49 ft

PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES by duration for ARI (years):

1 2 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000

5-min: 0.585 0.663 0.79 0.894 1.04 1.15 1.25 1.36 1.5 1.61

10-min: 0.857 0.971 1.16 1.31 1.52 1.68 1.84 1.99 2.2 2.36

15-min: 1.05 1.18 1.41 1.6 1.85 2.05 2.24 2.43 2.69 2.88

30-min: 1.56 1.76 2.09 2.37 2.76 3.08 3.4 3.73 4.17 4.52

60-min: 2.09 2.35 2.8 3.21 3.82 4.32 4.85 5.43 6.23 6.88

2-hr: 2.62 2.94 3.52 4.05 4.87 5.56 6.31 7.12 8.29 9.24

3-hr: 2.96 3.33 4.03 4.69 5.71 6.6 7.56 8.63 10.2 11.4

6-hr: 3.53 4.07 5.08 6.03 7.5 8.78 10.2 11.7 13.9 15.7

12-hr: 4.13 4.92 6.34 7.66 9.67 11.4 13.2 15.3 18.2 20.5

24-hr: 4.84 5.79 7.52 9.13 11.6 13.7 15.9 18.4 21.9 24.8

2-day: 5.69 6.67 8.5 10.2 12.9 15.2 17.7 20.5 24.5 27.8

3-day: 6.16 7.25 9.23 11.1 13.9 16.3 19 21.8 25.9 29.3   

GetRealtime_setup.txt info:

Future Days=5

Percent Missing Allowed= 100%

Write Dailys= True

Write Hourly Avg= True

Write Daily Max= True

Write Unit Values= True

Write Unit Shifts= False

Overwrite Protected Source 5= True

Check for Possible Bad Values= False

Possible Bad Value Change= 200%

Last Runoff Run's Storage= True

Minutes between retrievals=60

Max hours of radar=4

Save Radar greater than= False

Beep on Save= True

Delete temporary internet files=True

Loop radar boundaries=True

Use Nexrad Ridge1 full web file listing=False

Use Nexrad short web file listing=False

Use Nexrad Ridge2 Iowa State Mesonet=True

Use Nowcast 70R30 line=False

Compact and Backup HDB at midnight= True

GetAccess.exe folder=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETACCESS\

GetGraphs.exe folder=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETGRAPHS\

GetNexrad.exe folder=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETNEXRAD\

NowCast Info folder=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETNEXRAD\

Gage Avg OnOff folder=

Radar Boundary File folder=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETREALTIME\BOUNDARIES\

Menu Pic=C:\FFS\BUFFALODAMS\GETREALTIME\ADDICKS.JPG

Menu Text Color= 0

Minimize to System Tray=True

Column Widths=1395,1620,840,2910,555,4395,6870

Alert Address=

Alert Address CC=

Alert Address BCC=

Alert Start Time=-1

Don't Ask Questions=True

Create Winds Aloft graphic file=True

Metric Units=False

Database Connection String=Provider=Microsoft.Jet.OLEDB.4.0;Data Source=C:\FFS\BuffaloDams\GetAccess\GetAccessHDB.mdb;User Id=admin;Password=;

Station_ID; Datatype_Site_ID; Datatype_Name; Site_Name; base1; shift1; formula1; base2; shift2; formula2; base3; shift3; formula3

******; ******; ******; ******NWS Forecast Flow (includes 26 sqmi side inflow)********

FORECAST-NWS,wsbt2; 1409; Forecast Flow; USGS Beltway Gage Flows below Reservoirs

******; ******; ******; ******USGS**********************

08073600; 1409; Flow; USGS Flows below Reservoirs at Beltway

08073100, 5min; 1410; Flow; Langham Ck at Addicks Res Outflow

08072600, 5min; 1420; Flow; Buffalo Bayou at Barker Res Outflow

08073000, 5min; 2411; Elev; Addicks Res nr Addicks, TX

08072500, 5min; 3421; Elev; Barker Res nr Addicks, TX

******; ******; ******; ******USGS Rainfall display only*******************

08072300; 10203; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou nr Katy

08072350; 10204; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou nr Fulshear

08114000; 10205; Rainfall; Brazos Rv at Richmond

08074800; 10206; Rainfall; Keegans Bayou at Roark Rd nr Houston

08072500; 10207; Rainfall; Barker Res nr Addicks

08073600; 10208; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou at W Belt Dr

08072760; 10209; Rainfall; Langham Ck at W Little York Rd nr Addicks

08074150; 10210; Rainfall; Cole Ck at Deihl Rd

******; ******; ******; ******Wundergages Rainfall**********************

KTXKATY149; 10301; Rainfall; Katy SW

KTXCYPRE74; 10302; Rainfall; Niederberger's NW Cypress

KTXWALLE17; 10303; Rainfall; Sky Lakes W

KTXCYPRE194; 10304; Rainfall; Pine Creek C

KTXFULSH20; 10305; Rainfall; Fulshear SW

KTXWINCH2; 10306; Rainfall; Thesheerans NE

KTXHOUST789; 10307; Rainfall; Copperfield C

KTXHOUST820; 10308; Rainfall; Greentrails C

KTXHOUST1979; 10309; Rainfall; Brays Forest S

******; ******; ******; ******NWS Forecast**********************

Run-FORECAST-NWS; -11411; Forecast Rain; Addicks S1; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

FORECAST-NWS; -11412; Forecast Rain; Addicks S2; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

FORECAST-NWS; -11413; Forecast Rain; Addicks S3; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

FORECAST-NWS; -11421; Forecast Rain; Barker S1; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

FORECAST-NWS; -11422; Forecast Rain; Barker S2; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

FORECAST-NWS; -11423; Forecast Rain; Barker S3; -2; 29.791,-95.734, 3

******; ******; ******; ******Radar N0Q**********************

NEXRAD-HGX; -10411; Rainfall; Addicks Sub1 Reservoir Water; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10412; Rainfall; Addicks Sub2 Housing; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10413; Rainfall; Addicks Sub3 Farms; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10421; Rainfall; Barker Sub1 Reservoir Water; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10422; Rainfall; Barker Sub2 Housing; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10423; Rainfall; Barker Sub3 Farms; 0; nowcast 3, type 3

NEXRAD-HGX; -10301; Rainfall; Katy SW; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10302; Rainfall; Niederberger's NW Cypress; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10303; Rainfall; Sky Lakes W; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10304; Rainfall; Pine Creek C; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10305; Rainfall; Fulshear SW; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10306; Rainfall; Thesheerans; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10307; Rainfall; Copperfield; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10308; Rainfall; Greentrails; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10309; Rainfall; Brays Forest; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10203; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou nr Katy; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10204; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou nr Fulshear 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10205; Rainfall; Brazos Rv at Richmond; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10206; Rainfall; Keegans Bayou at Roark Rd nr Houston; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10207; Rainfall; Barker Res nr Addicks; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10208; Rainfall; Buffalo Bayou at W Belt Dr; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10209; Rainfall; Langham Ck at W Little York Rd nr Addicks; 0

NEXRAD-HGX; -10210; Rainfall; Cole Ck at Deihl Rd; 0

******; ******; ******; ******HRRR Forecast**********************

Run-Forecast-HRRR; -11411; Forecast Rain; Addicks S1; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

Forecast-HRRR; -11412; Forecast Rain; Addicks S2; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

Forecast-HRRR; -11413; Forecast Rain; Addicks S3; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

Forecast-HRRR; -11421; Forecast Rain; Barker S1; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

Forecast-HRRR; -11422; Forecast Rain; Barker S2; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

Forecast-HRRR; -11423; Forecast Rain; Barker S3; 0; 29.791,-95.734, 6

******; ******; ******; ******G/R Ratios**********************

COMPUTE-Hour; 10401; Rainfall; Houston Avg Rain Gages; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5+P6+P7+P8+P9)/N

COMPUTE-Hour; -10401; Rainfall; Houston Avg Radars; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5+P6+P7+P8+P9)/N

Run-COMPUTE-Hour; 31401; Ratio; Houston G/R Ratio; 0; 0.01, 1.0, 5; P1/P2

******; ******; ******; ******Adjusted Radar**********************

COMPUTE; -11411; Adjusted Rain; Addicks Sub1; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

COMPUTE; -11412; Adjusted Rain; Addicks Sub2; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

COMPUTE; -11413; Adjusted Rain; Addicks Sub3; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

COMPUTE; -11421; Adjusted Rain; Barker Sub1; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

COMPUTE; -11422; Adjusted Rain; Barker Sub2; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

COMPUTE; -11423; Adjusted Rain; Barker Sub3; 0; -1, 1.0, 0.3, 0.80; P1*P2

******; ******; ******; ******GRT Runoff **********************

COMPUTE; -30411; RUNOFF; Addicks Reservoir Water; 0; 1, 50, 0.10, 30, 21.20, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 84, 48, .8, 0.2, 3.5, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, 1, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, -1, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

COMPUTE; -30412; RUNOFF; Addicks Housing; 0; 4, 82, 0.10, 20, 63.94, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 97, 78, .8, 0.2, 3.5, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, .8, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, -1, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

COMPUTE; -30413; RUNOFF; Addicks Farms; 0; 6, 50, 0.10, 1, 48.27, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 84, 48, 0.8, 0.2, 1, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, 1, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, -1, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

COMPUTE; -30421; RUNOFF; Barker Reservoir Water; 0; 1, 50, 0.10, 30, 19.31, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 84, 48, .8, 0.8, 3.5, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, 1, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

COMPUTE; -30422; RUNOFF; Barker Housing; 0; 5, 82, 0.10, 20, 69.7, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 97, 78, .8, 0.5, 3.5, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, .8, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

COMPUTE; -30423; RUNOFF; Barker Farms; 0; 8, 50, 0.10, 1, 45.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 3.0, 84, 48, 0.8, 0.8, 1, 0.2, 0.8, 0.03, 1, 0, 0.2, 0, 0.7, 0, LagV; P1; 1.5; Clark UGF

******; ******; ******; ******GRT Routings **********************

ROUTE; -1413; Flow; Addicks Farms 3 to Res

Compute; -24411; Inflow; Addicks Subs 1+2 + Routed 3; 0; 0; P1+P2+P3

ROUTE; -1411; Release; Addicks Res Mopul

ROUTE; -1423; Flow; Barker Farms 3 to Res

Compute; -24421; Inflow; Barker Subs 1+2 + Routed 3; 0; 0; P1+P2+P3

ROUTE; -1421; Release; Barker Res Mopul

ROUTE; -1409; Flow; Barker + Addicks Releases + Sub 408 Runoff

******; ******; ******; ******Soil **********************

COMPUTE-unit; -6421; SCS CN; Addicks Reservoir Water Soil CN; 0; 0; 1000/(P1+10)

COMPUTE-unit; -6422; SCS CN; Addicks Housing Soil CN; 0; 0; 1000/(P1+10)

COMPUTE-unit; -6423; SCS CN; Addicks Farm Soil CN; 0; 0; 1000/(P1+10)

******; ******; ******; ******USGS Overwrite With History**********************

08073000, 5min; 2411; Elev; Addicks Res nr Addicks, TX

08072500, 5min; 3421; Elev; Barker Res nr Addicks, TX

******; ******; ******; ******SHELL ftp to web **********************

SHELL-C:\FFS\BuffaloDams\GETNEXRAD\GetNexrad.exe -2 mypassword; 0; Pic; Pic of Radar; 0

SHELL-C:\FFS\BuffaloDams\GETGRAPHS\GetGraphs.exe 4 mypassword; 0; Graphs; Getgraphs to Web; 0

SHELL-C:\FFS\BuffaloDams\GETGRAPHS\GetFromAccessNOW.exe rdaymax, 10401 -10401 -11412 -11422 2411 3421, -2, 5, HoustonNOW.txt, mypassword; 0; Flow Data to Web; Put Flow Data Text File on Web; 0

END

GetRealtime reservoir routing file example:

Route Subs 1,2,3 thru Addicks Dam

GET 4 -24411 Subs 1 2 3 inflow unit values

RELEASE 1410 -1 RHOUR use USGS hourlys history and for forecast release if > rated

ROUTE Modpul 2411 Modpul_Addicks_Rated.Rat -3 0.8 Seldon KS evap*.8, -3 write elev's on actual start day, not runoff begin

END

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of techniques in flood potential monitoring. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know.