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Mill Creek at Dalton, Georgia
Real-time 5-Minute NEXRAD Radar June 1, 2016 to .....

Just getting going with Dec 1-31, 2015 history calibration  Improvements will be made as realtime radar adjustments are improved with the better Wundergages


 

The Dec 2015 5-minute N0Q Huntsville radar, rain gages, and USGS data has been downloaded with my free GetRealtime and ran as history and runoff coefficients calibrated as best I can without looking at each event's rain gages.  Now the rain gages will be monitored and coefficents updated as needed.  So here is the history's initial calibration......

 

The basin above the USGS streamgage 02385500 MILL CREEK AT DALTON, GA was subdivided into 7 subbasins using my free GetMapArea.  The subbasins are shown on my free GetNexrad display below.  The USGS rain gage appears to be another worst in the world as half of them are.  You can't make this stuff up.

 

The largest two of  many ponds and reservoirs were broken out for routings.  The Haig Mill Lake capacity table was developed from 2 content values I found online as "height is 57 feet Its capacity is 5545 acre feet. Normal storage is 2212 acre feet" which was plenty to go on.  The other smaller reservoir, Hiawassee Company Lake, was based on it's normal surface area and and top of dam elevation contour elevation area using Google Earth as 34 acres and 50 acres.  So for 34 acres surface, at 1 ft depth, 34^1.1=48.4 so Storage=48.4*H^1.1 and then the 1.1 jiggled to hit 50 acres when full.  The power curve was jiggled on Haig Mill Lake to hit to 2 known capacitiess.

 

 For the spillways, Haig Mill Dam has an 80 ft long level ogee spillway Q=3*80*H^1.5 and an outlet structure estimated as Q=0.6*12.5*(64.4*H)^0.5.  Hiawassee has a roadway dip on the top of dam so again and effective W of Q=3*80*H^1.5.  (Do all small dams have 80' spillways???  Every one I have come across so far has been.).  The Hiawassee Dam outlet stucture uses Q=0.6*36*(64.4*H)^0.5.  All from Google Earth guesstimates.

 

Haig Mill Reservoir has a 1 cfs water supply diversion I guessed at so if inflow is less than 1 cfs then a drawdown of up to 35 ft is possible.  All this is pure conjecture but should get us in the ballpark.

 

The channel routings were cascading Modified Puls ratings using my free ModPulXsec with x-section data measured with Google Earth about midway in each reach.  The history runoff was run as one period so the optimized cascades were based on 2/3's of the peak flow for the year... so all is roughed in for now.  The model stage at the USGS gage is a lookup in the USGS rating.  The stage above Rocky Face is a Google Earth'd  x-section.  The bank full elevation is the flood 'Action Stage' at my ratings and the USGS gage rating 'Action Stage' is from the NWS who operate a observed flooding site here.

 

The history period Jan 1-Jun 1, 2016 was subsequently downloaded, some refinements made to the Dec calibrations, but not many and looks like we are in the ballpark.

 

Let's see how we do in real-time (all times are my Pacific Time).  This web page is automatically updated as my free GetRealime runs in unattended batch mode... when rain is in the area.

 

Last real-time radar image monitoring by shelled free GetNexrad: (radar cells are 0.6 miles wide)

basin boundaries and radar rainfall

Intellicast big picture Current Approaching Radar Loop:

 

Current real-time monitoring graphs with my free GetGraphs:

 

If you need data from the database sent to your web page sort of like this data table, then GetRealtime can shell my free GetFromAccessNow:

  

Current Hourly Values...

NWS forecast and 3-Hour Nowcast:

Alert triangles for forecasts greater than 0.1 inch/hour.

(All graphs pink colored series is the second source referred to so the pink here is raw radar w/nowcast)

(The Nowcasts will be evaluated on my web page here.)

rainall and forecast

 

Flood Stage at Dalton Gage:

flood stage forecast

 

Flood Stage of South Fork Above Rocky Face:

flood stage forecast

 

 

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More Current Info...........

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radar rainfall at gages

 

gage radar ratio and adjustment

 

basin rainfall frequency and depth

 

continuous CN soil moisture

 

subbasin runoff

 

reservoir releases and downstream flows

 

flood stage and flows

 

 

Nov 2016 to ... (started out in extreme drought):

 

hourly stage error

hourly flow at gage

flow cumulative volume

 

 

2015-2016 Initial Calibrations:

 

 

Radar Raingall Adjustments, Hourly and Daily:

 

The Dailys always line up, it's the hourlys that count!!!

 

Haig Mill Creek Dam Storage Curve Estimate includes 1 cfs water supply so rated outflow will have 1 cfs removed after routing.

 

Hiawassee Company Dam Storage Curve Estimate:

 

USGS Mill Creek at Dalton Gage Annual Peak Flow Log-Normal Probability Distribution from my free GetRegression:  (Haig Mill Dam built in 1995 on Sub 4 seems to really dampen the peaks here, along with the paradox valley outflow of Subs 5,6,7 being at right angle to their basin long valley axis.  The dam seems to have reduced the 100 year flow from 9,900 cfs to 2,700 cfs.

 

Just for your info, here are the peaks prior to Haig Mill Dam (1944-1959):

 

For the flows rated at a xsection above Rocky Face for Subs 6+7, the USGS Southeastern regional analysis by Gotvald (q10=398*A^0.617) was way too high for this paradoxical valley so I removed the Sub 4 Haig Mill basin from the USGS gage 40 sqmi and used Subs 6+7 area 9.5/31.6=0.3 * USGS latest period peaks.  This should provide a guesstimate of flood flow recurrence for this point in GetGraphs above.

 

 

The 6-hour NWS forecasts are distributed to 5-minutes using my Vegas 3 distribution and thought that would fit in around here and nowcasts based on winds aloft are limited to 3 hours.

 

NOAA Atlas 14 used in frequency graphs above:

 

 

Current GetRealtime_setup.txt file:

 

Future Days=5

Percent Missing Allowed= 100%

Write Dailys= True

Write Hourly Avg= True

Write Daily Max= True

Write Unit Values= True

Write Unit Shifts= False

Overwrite Protected Source 5= True

Check for Possible Bad Values= False

Possible Bad Value Change= 200%

 Last Runoff Run's Storage= True

Minutes between retrievals=60

Max hours of radar=4

Save Radar greater than= False

Beep on Save= True

Delete temporary internet files=True

Loop radar boundaries=True

Use Nexrad Ridge1 full web file listing=False

Use Nexrad short web file listing=False

Use Nexrad Ridge2 Iowa State Mesonet=True

Compact and Backup HDB at midnight= True

GetAccess.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETACCESS\

GetGraphs.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETGRAPHS\

GetNexrad.exe folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETNEXRAD\

NowCast Info folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETNEXRAD\

Gage Avg OnOff folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETGRAPHS\

Radar Boundary File folder=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETREALTIME\BOUNDARIESN0Q\

Menu Pic=C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETREALTIME\DALTON.JPG

Menu Text Color= 5869787

Minimize to System Tray=True

Column Widths=1500,615,2130,2280,555,1890,2205

Alert Address=

Alert Address CC=

Alert Address BCC=

Alert Start Time=-1

Don't Ask Questions=True

Create Winds Aloft graphic file=True

Metric Units=False

 

Database Connection String=Provider=Microsoft.Jet.OLEDB.4.0;Data Source=C:\GetProjects\GetDALTON\GetAccess\GetAccessHDB_DALTON.mdb;User Id=admin;Password=;

Station_ID; Datatype_Site_ID; Datatype_Name; Site_Name; base1; shift1; formula1; base2; shift2; formula2; base3; shift3; formula3

************; ************; ************; *****N0Q RADAR*******

NEXRAD-HTX; -10101; Radar Rain; Sub 1 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

Run-NEXRAD-HTX; -10102; Radar Rain; Sub 2 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10103; Radar Rain; Sub 3 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10104; Radar Rain; Sub 4 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10105; Radar Rain; Sub 5 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10106; Radar Rain; Sub 6 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10107; Radar Rain; Sub 7 Mill Cr, Dalton, GA; 0; Nowcast 3, adjust type 3

NEXRAD-HTX; -10131; Radar Rain; USGS CREEK AT DALTON, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10132; Radar Rain; KGAROCKY2 Rocky Face Ridge, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10133; Radar Rain; KGATUNNE2 Mt Vernon, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10134; Radar Rain; KGADALTO8 Dalton West, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10135; Radar Rain; KGADALTO11 Dalton, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10136; Radar Rain; KGADALTO7 Downtown Dalton, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10137; Radar Rain; KGADALTO19 Dawnville, GA

NEXRAD-HTX; -10138; Radar Rain; KGARINGG10 Pleasant Valley, GA

************; ************; ************; *****NWS Forecasts*****

FORECAST-NWS; -11101; Forcast Rain>0.3"-hour; Sub 1; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11102; Forcast Rain; Sub 2; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11103; Forcast Rain; Sub 3; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11104; Forcast Rain; Sub 4; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11105; Forcast Rain; Sub 5; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11106; Forcast Rain; Sub 6; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

FORECAST-NWS; -11107; Forcast Rain; Sub 7; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

Run-FORECAST-NWS; 11135; Rainfall; Dalton, GA; -3; 34.8044,-85.0242,3

************; ************; ************; *****Wundergages*******

02385500; 10131; Rainfall; MILL CREEK AT DALTON, GA

KGAROCKY2; 10132; Rainfall; Rocky Face Ridge, GA

KGATUNNE2; 10133; Rainfall; Mt Vernon, GA

KGADALTO8; 10134; Rainfall; Dalton West, GA

KGADALTO11; 10135; Rainfall; Dalton, GA

KGADALTO7; 10136; Rainfall; Downtown Dalton, GA

KGADALTO19; 10137; Rainfall; Dawnville, GA

KGARINGG10; 10138; Rainfall; Pleasant Valley, GA

************; ************; ************; *****RATIO*******

COMPUTE-hour; 10121; Rainfall; North Avg Rain Gages; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -10121; Rainfall; North Avg Radars; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5)/N

Run-COMPUTE-hour; -31121; Ratio; North Avg Ratio; 0; 0.02,1,6; P1/P2

COMPUTE-hour; 10122; Rainfall; South Avg Rain Gages; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -10122; Rainfall; South Avg Radars; 0; 0; (P1+P2+P3+P4+P5)/N

COMPUTE-hour; -31122; Ratio; South Avg Ratio; 0; 0.02,1,6; P1/P2

************; ************; ************; *****Adjusted Rainfall*******

COMPUTE-unit; -11101; Adj Radar Rain>0.3"-hour; Sub 1; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11102; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 2; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

Run-COMPUTE-unit; -11103; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 3; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11104; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 4; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11105; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 5; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11106; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 6; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11107; Adj Radar Rain; Sub 7; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

COMPUTE-unit; -11131; Adj Radar Rain; USGS Gage; 0; -1,1.0,0.3,1.5; P1*P2

************; ************; ************; *****Runoff******

Run-COMPUTE-unit; -30101; RUNOFF; Sub 1 Dalton, GA; 0; 0.75, 70, 0.1, 25, 0.781, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.7, 0.5, 2, 0.3, 0.75, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, -1, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30102; RUNOFF; Sub 2 Dalton, GA; 0; 1.416667, 70, 0.1, 15, 3.146, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.7, 0.5, 2, 0.2, 0.75, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30103; Runoff; Sub 3 Dalton, GA; 0; 1.0, 60, 0.1, 20, 3.699, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 87, 55, 0.6, 0, 2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30104; Runoff; Sub 4 Dalton, GA; 1; 2.0, 65, 0.1, 2, 9.423, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.6, 0, 2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.03, 1, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30105; Runoff; Sub 5 Dalton, GA; 0; 6.0, 65, 0.1, 0.1, 4.536, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.6, 0, 2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30106; Runoff; Sub 6 Dalton, GA; 0; 4.5, 65, 0.1, 0.1, 5.295, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.6, 0, 2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

COMPUTE-unit; -30107; Runoff; Sub 7 Dalton, GA; 0; 7.25, 65, 0.1, 0.1, 12.88, 0.3, .2, 0.4, 2, 0.1, 7, 90, 60, 0.6, 0, 2, 0.1, 1.0, 0.03, 0.8, 0, 0.2, 1, 0.7, 0, Lag0; P1; 0; VillageCreek.DGF

************; ************; ************; *****Route******

ROUTE-unit; -1104; Flow; Route Haig Mill Dam Out

ROUTE-unit; -1107; Flow; Route Hiawassee Dam Sub 7 Out

ROUTE-unit; -1105; Flow; Route Sub 7 to 5 Combine 7,6,5

ROUTE-unit; -1103; Flow; Route Sub 7,6,5 to 3 And Combine Subs 2&3

ROUTE-unit; -1100; Flow; Route Sub 7,6,5,3.2 to Gage And Combine Sub 4&1

ROUTE-unit; -1106; Flow; Combine 7+6 For Flood Stage above Rocky Face

LOOKUP-Unit; -2106; Stage>-daymax-7ft_action,8ft_minor,10ft_moderate,13ft_major; S Fork Mill Cr above Rocky Face

LOOKUP-Unit; -2100; Stage>-daymax-9ft_action,11ft_minor,14ft_moderate,17ft_major; Mill Cr at Dalton Gage

************; ************; ************; *****Soil Moisture just for display*****

COMPUTE-hour; -6101; Soil Runoff Fraction>40%-hour; Sub1 Soil Flood Potential; 0; 0; 0; P2>0.2*P1; 0; 100*(P2-0.2*P1)^2/(P2+0.8*P1)/P2

COMPUTE-hour; -5101; SCS CN; Sub1 Soil CN; 0; 0; 1000/(P1+10)

************; ************; ************; *****USGS*****

02385500; 1100; Flow; MILL CR AT DALTON, GA

02385500; 2100; Gage Height; MILL CR AT DALTON, GA

************; ************; ************; ****Set Run Interval based on forecast rain*****

**SET-INTERVAL; -11101; Forcast Rain; Sub 1; +4,rhour; 60; P1>.001; 0; 30; P1>.2

************; ************; ************; ***** Shell for Web Display*****

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETNEXRAD\GetNexrad.exe -2 mypassword; 0; Pic; Pic of Radar; 0

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETGRAPHS\GetGraphs.exe 4 mypassword; 0; Graphs; Getgraphs to Web; 0

SHELL-C:\GETPROJECTS\GETDALTON\GETGRAPHS\GetFromAccessNOW.exe rdaymax, 10122 -10122 10131 -10131 -11131 1100 -1100 2100 -2100 -6101, -2, 5, DaltonNOW.txt, mypassord; 0; Flow Data to Web; Put Flow Data Text File on Web; 0

END

 

 

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of techniques in flood potential monitoring. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know. 

 

 

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