Home About Free Downloads Register Help Site Map More Stuff
  GetRealtime
A Farmer's Guide for the Cadillac Desert*
(Adjusting Water Orders on the Colorado River Arizona-California)
Began Jan 1, 2021 and Updated Daily
 


$Free$ Windows software
for producing real-time quantitave info-graphics for making adjustments to your 7-day water orders. Such things as 7-day forecasts of rain, temperature, cloud cover, evapotranspiration, reservoir space, canal capacities, snowpack, and spring runoff are presented. I'm not an experienced farmer but I would think knowing the future might be helpful so here are some of my ideas, if not just interesting info.

$FREE$ real-time data sources for this study:
NWS -- weather forecasts, flood forecasts, Nexrad radar.
USGS -- flows, reservoirs & rainfall.
Wunderground and MesoWest -- rain & weather.
USBR -- reservoirs.
SCS -- mountain snowpack and precip.

Calculations performed and stored for this study(MS Access DB):
Gage Adjusted Radar Rainfall Over the Ag Districts.
Desert Area Gage Adjusted Radar Rainfall.
Desert Rainfall-Runoff-Routings.
ASCE Penman-Monteith Evapotraspiration.
Canal Water Order Adjustment.
Rainfall Frequencies and Depth Durations.
Peak Flow Annual Exceedance.
Upper Colorado and Gila Basin Snowpack & Inflow Forecasts.

The automated web uploads can be left running and making updates every hour or can be run when you think about it. I'll be updating this web page each day (or more if it rains) probably for a year and then it will be up to you to download the free software and continue on. It's pretty exciting to watch your points and boundarys light up the first time you see radar rainfall headed across your area racking up the $FREE$ rainfall in real-time.

Two ag districts were selected at the end of the Colorado River; Wellton-Mohawk IDD, AZ and Imperial ID, CA. Besides gage adjusted radar rainfall over the district, Welton includes desert basin storm runoff below the Dateland Gage.

One could take what I have here and add other automated sources of info I'm not familiar with. You might talk to your ag district about automating their website with these $FREE$ graphics. All it takes is an old laptop running in the corner or for the ambitious run it on a Microsoft Cloud virtual machine. It takes about 30 seconds of PC time to automatically update and post the graphs on your web page like I'm doing here. The problem with using your work PC is you don't want graphs popping up on your screen every hour while you are trying to work on something else, hence the old laptop in the corner.  But you don't need to include the graphics to keep the info current so your work PC will do fine like I do here.


GetRealTime = 5 Components
Youtube video overview of GetRealtime Thanks John!
http://getmyrealtime.com/SiteMap.aspx

1) GetRealTime.exe - reads and stores data in MS Access DB; pulls data from other networkds, makes calculations, adjusts radar, runs flow models, and forecasts rain events and flows.

2) GetAccess.exe - frontend to the DB; useful for exporting and viewing data but DB is accessible and tables can be viewed and queried directly.

3) GetGraphs.exe - links to DB and websites; allows the viewing of up to 12 charts per view.

4) GetNexrad.exe - view radar images and loops, surface obs, flood forecasts, QPF rings, storm tracks, ETA, and more.

5) GetMapArea.exe - used to georeference radar watershed boundaries and run quick flow model what ifs and rainfall scenarios.


Note:  All times are for my computer's Pacific Time Zone and an AZ time shift will be made each Spring and Fall for daylight saving shenanigans.

Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation and Drainage District
(with emphasis on flooding on the Gila River)

GetNexrad A2M MRMS Radar with Ag Area and 10 Desert Runoff Subbasins, Plots are Yesterday and Today Flows:
The Wellton-Mohawk district is in a radar shadow of the 3000 foot Gila Mountains.  The A2M radar/satelite combo product overcomes this.



GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Flow Forecast, Current USGS, NWS Flood Flows of the Gila River ( note top-right P=x yrs flood frquency ):



Current Rainfall Gages, Raw and Adusted Radar, NWS 7-Day Rain Forecast, Rainfall Partial Frequencies and Depths:
I'm thinking for the farm turnout water order adjustment, take the forecast rainfall below with ET farther below, convert to farm area acre-feet and reduce your cfs-duration water order by that amount.



GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Forecast of 10 Desert Subbasins Rainfall-Runoff along the Gila River:



7-Day Weather Forecast and ASCE Evapotranspiration:



GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Rainfall Forecast and Canal Water Order Adjustment:
For the canal delivery operator, if the farmers haven't done their work above for you, you could take the whole Ag Area runoff, reduce it by the fraction of current canal capacity as the reduction to your order at Parker Dam as shown here... maybe???



GetNexrad 24-Hour Rainfall Forecast Map w/Flooding Points, Colorado & Gila Basins Snowpack and Reservoir Levels, Pics of the Cadillac Desert:



Powell & Gila Basin Current Snowpack, Reservoir Levels, and Forecast of Monthly Flows:
(If date shown does not match graph date above try Ctrl*Refresh  your browser)




GetRegressions Gila nr Dome Flood Frequencies ( 1/0.1 P = 10 year flood of 4,000 cfs ):



Wellton-Mohawk Ag Area Rainfall Depth-Duration Frequencies ( 10-year, 3-hour rainfall depth= 1.52" ):
POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY (PF) ESTIMATES
WITH 90% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 1, Version 5
 
PDS-based precipitation frequency estimates with 90% confidence intervals (in inches)1
Duration Average recurrence interval (years)
1 2 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000
5-min 0.134(0.107‑0.154) 0.181(0.152‑0.219) 0.270(0.243‑0.351) 0.342(0.317‑0.460) 0.449(0.419‑0.623) 0.538(0.505‑0.761) 0.640(0.597‑0.920) 0.756(0.694‑1.10) 0.932(0.839‑1.39) 1.09(0.958‑1.66)
10-min 0.204(0.162‑0.234) 0.276(0.231‑0.333) 0.411(0.370‑0.534) 0.520(0.483‑0.700) 0.683(0.638‑0.948) 0.819(0.768‑1.16) 0.975(0.908‑1.40) 1.15(1.06‑1.68) 1.42(1.28‑2.12) 1.66(1.46‑2.52)
15-min 0.252(0.201‑0.291) 0.342(0.287‑0.413) 0.509(0.458‑0.662) 0.645(0.598‑0.868) 0.846(0.791‑1.18) 1.02(0.952‑1.44) 1.21(1.13‑1.74) 1.43(1.31‑2.08) 1.76(1.58‑2.62) 2.05(1.81‑3.12)
30-min 0.340(0.271‑0.391) 0.460(0.386‑0.556) 0.686(0.617‑0.892) 0.869(0.806‑1.17) 1.14(1.07‑1.58) 1.37(1.28‑1.93) 1.63(1.52‑2.34) 1.92(1.77‑2.81) 2.37(2.13‑3.53) 2.76(2.43‑4.21)
60-min 0.421(0.335‑0.484) 0.569(0.478‑0.688) 0.849(0.764‑1.10) 1.08(0.997‑1.45) 1.41(1.32‑1.96) 1.69(1.59‑2.39) 2.01(1.88‑2.89) 2.38(2.18‑3.47) 2.93(2.64‑4.37) 3.42(3.01‑5.20)
2-hr 0.489(0.400‑0.592) 0.678(0.564‑0.825) 1.09(0.904‑1.32) 1.43(1.17‑1.72) 1.93(1.56‑2.34) 2.37(1.88‑2.86) 2.86(2.23‑3.47) 3.41(2.60‑4.17) 4.25(3.15‑5.27) 5.00(3.59‑6.29)
3-hr 0.529(0.446‑0.633) 0.734(0.619‑0.891) 1.17(0.976‑1.40) 1.52(1.25‑1.81) 2.05(1.67‑2.45) 2.51(2.00‑3.00) 3.03(2.37‑3.64) 3.62(2.77‑4.38) 4.54(3.37‑5.55) 5.36(3.86‑6.65)
6-hr 0.634(0.541‑0.748) 0.872(0.745‑1.04) 1.35(1.15‑1.60) 1.75(1.46‑2.06) 2.32(1.92‑2.75) 2.81(2.28‑3.35) 3.35(2.67‑4.01) 3.95(3.09‑4.76) 4.90(3.72‑5.98) 5.74(4.25‑7.10)
12-hr 0.726(0.624‑0.849) 1.01(0.861‑1.18) 1.55(1.32‑1.81) 1.98(1.68‑2.31) 2.60(2.17‑3.04) 3.13(2.58‑3.68) 3.69(2.99‑4.36) 4.31(3.44‑5.14) 5.23(4.05‑6.32) 6.08(4.59‑7.44)
24-hr 0.838(0.720‑0.976) 1.16(0.999‑1.35) 1.78(1.53‑2.07) 2.28(1.95‑2.64) 3.00(2.53‑3.48) 3.59(3.00‑4.19) 4.24(3.49‑4.98) 4.96(4.00‑5.87) 6.00(4.73‑7.21) 6.86(5.30‑8.37)
2-day 0.895(0.768‑1.02) 1.24(1.07‑1.40) 1.87(1.62‑2.12) 2.38(2.05‑2.69) 3.09(2.63‑3.51) 3.68(3.09‑4.21) 4.31(3.57‑5.03) 4.99(4.06‑5.93) 6.06(4.75‑7.28) 6.93(5.34‑8.45)
3-day 0.925(0.797‑1.06) 1.27(1.10‑1.45) 1.92(1.66‑2.18) 2.43(2.10‑2.75) 3.15(2.69‑3.57) 3.74(3.15‑4.27) 4.37(3.64‑5.07) 5.05(4.12‑5.95) 6.07(4.81‑7.32) 6.97(5.39‑8.50)
4-day 0.956(0.826‑1.09) 1.31(1.13‑1.49) 1.97(1.71‑2.23) 2.48(2.14‑2.82) 3.21(2.74‑3.64) 3.80(3.21‑4.34) 4.44(3.70‑5.11) 5.12(4.19‑5.97) 6.09(4.88‑7.35) 7.00(5.44‑8.54)
7-day 1.05(0.908‑1.19) 1.43(1.24‑1.63) 2.14(1.86‑2.43) 2.69(2.32‑3.04) 3.44(2.94‑3.90) 4.04(3.42‑4.61) 4.68(3.92‑5.39) 5.36(4.41‑6.24) 6.33(5.12‑7.50) 7.13(5.67‑8.58)
10-day 1.10(0.948‑1.26) 1.50(1.29‑1.72) 2.26(1.95‑2.57) 2.84(2.45‑3.24) 3.66(3.12‑4.17) 4.33(3.64‑4.96) 5.04(4.18‑5.83) 5.80(4.73‑6.80) 6.88(5.49‑8.21) 7.76(6.11‑9.44)
20-day 1.26(1.08‑1.44) 1.73(1.49‑1.97) 2.60(2.24‑2.96) 3.26(2.80‑3.70) 4.17(3.55‑4.74) 4.89(4.12‑5.60) 5.66(4.71‑6.54) 6.46(5.30‑7.55) 7.60(6.10‑9.03) 8.51(6.73‑10.3)
30-day 1.43(1.25‑1.62) 1.97(1.71‑2.21) 2.89(2.52‑3.26) 3.57(3.11‑4.02) 4.48(3.87‑5.05) 5.19(4.44‑5.88) 5.92(5.00‑6.77) 6.68(5.58‑7.72) 7.72(6.33‑9.06) 8.62(6.97‑10.4)
45-day 1.57(1.36‑1.78) 2.16(1.89‑2.43) 3.20(2.79‑3.60) 3.96(3.44‑4.45) 4.97(4.30‑5.60) 5.76(4.93‑6.52) 6.57(5.56‑7.50) 7.40(6.19‑8.54) 8.52(7.00‑9.98) 9.39(7.61‑11.1)
60-day 1.72(1.49‑1.94) 2.36(2.05‑2.66) 3.49(3.04‑3.93) 4.30(3.74‑4.84) 5.37(4.65‑6.04) 6.19(5.31‑6.99) 7.02(5.96‑7.99) 7.87(6.60‑9.06) 8.99(7.43‑10.5) 9.87(8.06‑11.7)
1 Precipitation frequency (PF) estimates in this table are based on frequency analysis of partial duration series (PDS).
Numbers in parenthesis are PF estimates at lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval. The probability that precipitation frequency estimates (for a given duration and average recurrence interval) will be greater than the upper bound (or less than the lower bound) is 5%. Estimates at upper bounds are not checked against probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates and may be higher than currently valid PMP values.
Please refer to NOAA Atlas 14 document for more information.




Imperial Irrigation District
(with emphasis on delivery reservoirs)

GetNexrad N0Q radar with Ag Area, Plots for Yesterday and Today:



GetNexrad 24-Hour and 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Maps and More Pics of the Cadillac Desert:




7-Day Weather Forecast and ASCE Evapotranspiration:



Current Rainfall Gages, Raw and Adusted Radar, NWS 7-Day Rain Forecast, Water Order Adjustment:
For the canal delivery operator, if the farmers haven't done their work above for you, you could take the whole Ag Area runoff, reduce it by the fraction of current canal capacity as the reduction to your order at Parker Dam as shown here... maybe???


Brock Reservoir, Senator Wash, Imperial Dam, Lake Mead %Full, Ag Area Rainfall Frequencies:
Another option for farmers to adjust their water oder is to watch Senator Wash and Brock Reservoir inflows/outflows/level.  Low Senator Wash level and high Brock outflows mean the smart money is on a cut in water orders.  Just sayin... I don't know man, you may have it backwards... the smarter money may be on the farmers.



Selection of Data Automated from the GetAccess Database (Pacific Time):



Imperial Ag Area Rainfall Depth-Duration Frequencies ( 10-year, 3-hour rainfall depth= 0.936" ):
POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY (PF) ESTIMATES
WITH 90% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 6, Version 2
PDS-based precipitation frequency estimates with 90% confidence intervals (in inches)1
Duration Average recurrence interval (years)
1 2 5 10 25 50 100 200 500 1000
5-min 0.060(0.051‑0.072) 0.094(0.079‑0.112) 0.147(0.123‑0.176) 0.197(0.164‑0.239) 0.279(0.225‑0.351) 0.354(0.279‑0.455) 0.443(0.339‑0.584) 0.548(0.408‑0.745) 0.719(0.512‑1.02) 0.877(0.602‑1.29)
10-min 0.086(0.073‑0.103) 0.135(0.113‑0.161) 0.210(0.177‑0.253) 0.283(0.236‑0.343) 0.400(0.322‑0.503) 0.508(0.399‑0.652) 0.635(0.486‑0.836) 0.786(0.585‑1.07) 1.03(0.734‑1.46) 1.26(0.863‑1.85)
15-min 0.104(0.088‑0.125) 0.163(0.137‑0.195) 0.254(0.214‑0.306) 0.342(0.285‑0.415) 0.484(0.389‑0.608) 0.614(0.483‑0.789) 0.767(0.588‑1.01) 0.951(0.707‑1.29) 1.25(0.888‑1.77) 1.52(1.04‑2.24)
30-min 0.144(0.122‑0.173) 0.226(0.190‑0.271) 0.353(0.297‑0.425) 0.475(0.395‑0.576) 0.672(0.540‑0.844) 0.852(0.670‑1.10) 1.07(0.816‑1.40) 1.32(0.982‑1.79) 1.73(1.23‑2.45) 2.11(1.45‑3.10)
60-min 0.201(0.170‑0.241) 0.315(0.266‑0.378) 0.493(0.414‑0.592) 0.663(0.552‑0.803) 0.938(0.754‑1.18) 1.19(0.935‑1.53) 1.49(1.14‑1.96) 1.84(1.37‑2.50) 2.41(1.72‑3.43) 2.94(2.02‑4.33)
2-hr 0.276(0.233‑0.331) 0.412(0.347‑0.494) 0.626(0.526‑0.752) 0.832(0.693‑1.01) 1.17(0.939‑1.47) 1.48(1.16‑1.90) 1.85(1.42‑2.44) 2.29(1.71‑3.12) 3.02(2.15‑4.29) 3.70(2.54‑5.44)
3-hr 0.322(0.271‑0.385) 0.471(0.397‑0.565) 0.708(0.595‑0.851) 0.936(0.779‑1.14) 1.31(1.05‑1.64) 1.65(1.30‑2.12) 2.06(1.58‑2.72) 2.56(1.90‑3.48) 3.37(2.40‑4.78) 4.12(2.83‑6.06)
6-hr 0.402(0.340‑0.482) 0.584(0.493‑0.700) 0.869(0.730‑1.05) 1.14(0.951‑1.38) 1.58(1.27‑1.99) 1.99(1.57‑2.56) 2.47(1.89‑3.26) 3.05(2.27‑4.14) 3.98(2.83‑5.64) 4.84(3.32‑7.12)
12-hr 0.467(0.394‑0.558) 0.688(0.580‑0.824) 1.03(0.864‑1.24) 1.35(1.12‑1.63) 1.86(1.49‑2.33) 2.31(1.82‑2.97) 2.84(2.18‑3.75) 3.47(2.58‑4.71) 4.46(3.18‑6.33) 5.36(3.68‑7.88)
24-hr 0.592(0.523‑0.684) 0.890(0.785‑1.03) 1.34(1.18‑1.55) 1.75(1.53‑2.04) 2.39(2.03‑2.88) 2.96(2.46‑3.63) 3.61(2.93‑4.53) 4.35(3.45‑5.61) 5.51(4.20‑7.39) 6.54(4.83‑9.05)
2-day 0.703(0.621‑0.812) 1.06(0.939‑1.23) 1.60(1.41‑1.85) 2.08(1.82‑2.43) 2.83(2.40‑3.41) 3.48(2.89‑4.27) 4.21(3.42‑5.28) 5.04(3.99‑6.49) 6.31(4.80‑8.45) 7.41(5.47‑10.3)
3-day 0.747(0.660‑0.862) 1.13(0.998‑1.31) 1.70(1.49‑1.97) 2.21(1.93‑2.58) 2.98(2.53‑3.59) 3.65(3.04‑4.49) 4.40(3.58‑5.53) 5.25(4.16‑6.77) 6.54(4.98‑8.76) 7.66(5.65‑10.6)
4-day 0.784(0.693‑0.905) 1.18(1.05‑1.37) 1.77(1.56‑2.05) 2.30(2.01‑2.69) 3.10(2.63‑3.74) 3.79(3.15‑4.65) 4.56(3.70‑5.72) 5.42(4.30‑6.99) 6.74(5.13‑9.02) 7.87(5.80‑10.9)
7-day 0.838(0.740‑0.967) 1.25(1.11‑1.45) 1.86(1.63‑2.15) 2.40(2.10‑2.80) 3.22(2.73‑3.88) 3.93(3.26‑4.82) 4.71(3.83‑5.91) 5.59(4.43‑7.21) 6.93(5.28‑9.28) 8.08(5.96‑11.2)
10-day 0.869(0.768‑1.00) 1.29(1.14‑1.49) 1.91(1.68‑2.21) 2.46(2.15‑2.87) 3.29(2.79‑3.97) 4.00(3.33‑4.91) 4.79(3.89‑6.01) 5.67(4.49‑7.31) 7.00(5.33‑9.37) 8.13(6.00‑11.3)
20-day 0.950(0.840‑1.10) 1.42(1.26‑1.65) 2.10(1.85‑2.43) 2.69(2.35‑3.14) 3.57(3.03‑4.30) 4.31(3.58‑5.29) 5.11(4.15‑6.41) 5.99(4.74‑7.72) 7.29(5.55‑9.76) 8.38(6.18‑11.6)
30-day 1.00(0.884‑1.16) 1.52(1.34‑1.75) 2.24(1.97‑2.60) 2.87(2.51‑3.35) 3.79(3.21‑4.56) 4.54(3.78‑5.58) 5.35(4.35‑6.72) 6.24(4.94‑8.04) 7.52(5.73‑10.1) 8.58(6.33‑11.9)
45-day 1.06(0.936‑1.22) 1.63(1.44‑1.88) 2.42(2.13‑2.80) 3.09(2.70‑3.61) 4.06(3.44‑4.89) 4.84(4.02‑5.94) 5.67(4.61‑7.12) 6.56(5.19‑8.45) 7.82(5.96‑10.5) 8.85(6.53‑12.2)
60-day 1.13(1.00‑1.31) 1.77(1.56‑2.04) 2.63(2.32‑3.05) 3.37(2.94‑3.93) 4.40(3.73‑5.30) 5.23(4.35‑6.42) 6.10(4.95‑7.66) 7.01(5.55‑9.04) 8.30(6.32‑11.1) 9.33(6.88‑12.9)
1 Precipitation frequency (PF) estimates in this table are based on frequency analysis of partial duration series (PDS).
Numbers in parenthesis are PF estimates at lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval. The probability that precipitation frequency estimates (for a given duration and average recurrence interval) will be greater than the upper bound (or less than the lower bound) is 5%. Estimates at upper bounds are not checked against probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates and may be higher than currently valid PMP values.
Please refer to NOAA Atlas 14 document for more information.

Intellicast's Current Radar:




PAST EVENTS:

Jan 21, 2021 -- GetNexrad A2M MRMS Radar with Ag Area and 10 Desert Runoff Subbasins, Plots are Yesterday and Today Flows:


Jan 21, 2021 -- GetNexrad N0Q radar with Ag Area, Plots for Yesterday and Today:





Overview of GetRealtime:


(*) Some of our current values may not reflect actual conditions. Whud ya want... a fix it again Tony?

Important Note:  Nothing on this page is intended as interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page is intended solely as a demonstration of automated techniques in flood potential monitoring and deliveries. The reader assumes all risk for any damages whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the supplied data just so you know.


  WEBSITE MAP

Comments/Questions

Email:  carson@getmyrealtime.com

2021 by Carson, Reproduction permitted & encouraged.
7
 
Home About Free Downloads Register Help Site Map More Stuff