|
|
$Free$ Windows software for producing
real-time quantitave info-graphics for making adjustments to your 7-day water
orders. Such things as 7-day forecasts of rain, temperature, cloud cover,
evapotranspiration, reservoir space, canal capacities, snowpack, and spring
runoff are presented. I'm not an experienced farmer but I would think knowing
the future might be helpful so here are some of my ideas, if not just
interesting info.
$FREE$ real-time data sources for this study:
NWS -- weather forecasts, flood forecasts, Nexrad radar.
USGS -- flows, reservoirs & rainfall.
Wunderground and MesoWest -- rain & weather.
USBR -- reservoirs.
SCS -- mountain snowpack and precip.
Calculations performed and stored for this study(MS Access DB):
Gage Adjusted Radar Rainfall Over the Ag Districts.
Desert Area Gage Adjusted Radar Rainfall.
Desert
Rainfall-Runoff-Routings.
ASCE Penman-Monteith Evapotraspiration.
Canal Water Order Adjustment.
Rainfall Frequencies and Depth Durations.
Peak Flow Annual Exceedance.
Upper Colorado and Gila Basin Snowpack & Inflow Forecasts.
The automated
web uploads can be left running and making updates every hour or can
be run when you think about it. I'll be updating this web page each day (or more
if it rains) probably for a year and then it will be up to you to download the
free software and continue on. It's pretty exciting to watch your points and
boundarys light up the first time you see radar rainfall headed across your area
racking up the $FREE$ rainfall in real-time.
Two ag districts were selected at the end of the Colorado River; Wellton-Mohawk
IDD, AZ and Imperial ID, CA. Besides gage adjusted radar rainfall over the
district, Welton includes desert basin storm runoff below the Dateland Gage.
One could take what I have here and add other automated sources of info I'm not
familiar with. You might talk to your ag district about automating their website
with these $FREE$ graphics. All it takes is an old laptop
running in the corner or for the ambitious run it on a Microsoft Cloud virtual
machine. It takes about 30 seconds of PC time to automatically update and post
the graphs on your web page like I'm doing here. The problem with using your
work PC is you don't want graphs popping up on your screen every hour while you
are trying to work on something else, hence the old laptop in the corner.
But you don't need to include the graphics to keep the info current so your work
PC will do fine like I do here.
GetRealTime = 5 Components
Youtube video
overview of GetRealtime Thanks John!
http://getmyrealtime.com/SiteMap.aspx
1) GetRealTime.exe - reads and stores data in MS Access DB;
pulls data from other networkds, makes calculations, adjusts radar, runs flow
models, and forecasts rain events and flows.
2) GetAccess.exe - frontend to the DB; useful for exporting and
viewing data but DB is accessible and tables can be viewed and queried directly.
3) GetGraphs.exe - links to DB and websites; allows the viewing
of up to 12 charts per view.
4) GetNexrad.exe - view radar images and loops, surface obs,
flood forecasts, QPF rings, storm tracks, ETA, and more.
5) GetMapArea.exe - used to georeference radar watershed
boundaries and run quick flow model what ifs and rainfall scenarios.
Note: All times are for my computer's Pacific Time
Zone and an AZ time shift will be made each Spring and Fall for daylight
saving shenanigans.
Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation and Drainage District
(with emphasis on flooding on the Gila River)
GetNexrad A2M MRMS Radar with Ag Area and 10 Desert Runoff Subbasins, Plots are
Yesterday and Today Flows:
The Wellton-Mohawk district is in a radar shadow of the 3000 foot Gila
Mountains. The A2M radar/satelite combo product overcomes this.
GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Flow Forecast, Current USGS, NWS Flood Flows of the
Gila River ( note top-right P=x yrs flood frquency ):
Current Rainfall Gages, Raw and Adusted Radar, NWS 7-Day Rain Forecast,
Rainfall Partial Frequencies and Depths:
I'm thinking for the farm turnout water order adjustment, take the
forecast rainfall below with ET farther below, convert to farm area acre-feet
and reduce your cfs-duration water order by that amount.
GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Forecast of 10 Desert Subbasins Rainfall-Runoff
along the
Gila River:
7-Day Weather Forecast and ASCE Evapotranspiration:
GetRealtime (GRT) 7-Day Rainfall Forecast and Canal Water Order
Adjustment:
For the canal delivery operator, if the farmers haven't done their work
above for you, you could take the whole Ag Area runoff, reduce it by the
fraction of current canal capacity as the reduction to your order at Parker Dam
as shown here... maybe???
GetNexrad 24-Hour Rainfall Forecast Map w/Flooding Points, Colorado & Gila Basins Snowpack
and Reservoir Levels, Pics of the Cadillac Desert:
Powell & Gila Basin Current Snowpack, Reservoir Levels, and Forecast of Monthly
Flows:
(If date shown does not match graph date above try Ctrl*Refresh your
browser)
GetRegressions Gila nr Dome Flood Frequencies ( 1/0.1 P = 10 year flood of 4,000 cfs ):
Wellton-Mohawk Ag Area Rainfall Depth-Duration Frequencies ( 10-year,
3-hour rainfall depth= 1.52" ):
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POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY (PF) ESTIMATES
WITH 90% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 1, Version 5
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|
|
PDS-based precipitation frequency estimates with
90% confidence intervals (in inches)1 |
|
Duration |
Average recurrence interval (years) |
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
25 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
500 |
1000 |
|
5-min |
0.134(0.107‑0.154) |
0.181(0.152‑0.219) |
0.270(0.243‑0.351) |
0.342(0.317‑0.460) |
0.449(0.419‑0.623) |
0.538(0.505‑0.761) |
0.640(0.597‑0.920) |
0.756(0.694‑1.10) |
0.932(0.839‑1.39) |
1.09(0.958‑1.66) |
|
10-min |
0.204(0.162‑0.234) |
0.276(0.231‑0.333) |
0.411(0.370‑0.534) |
0.520(0.483‑0.700) |
0.683(0.638‑0.948) |
0.819(0.768‑1.16) |
0.975(0.908‑1.40) |
1.15(1.06‑1.68) |
1.42(1.28‑2.12) |
1.66(1.46‑2.52) |
|
15-min |
0.252(0.201‑0.291) |
0.342(0.287‑0.413) |
0.509(0.458‑0.662) |
0.645(0.598‑0.868) |
0.846(0.791‑1.18) |
1.02(0.952‑1.44) |
1.21(1.13‑1.74) |
1.43(1.31‑2.08) |
1.76(1.58‑2.62) |
2.05(1.81‑3.12) |
|
30-min |
0.340(0.271‑0.391) |
0.460(0.386‑0.556) |
0.686(0.617‑0.892) |
0.869(0.806‑1.17) |
1.14(1.07‑1.58) |
1.37(1.28‑1.93) |
1.63(1.52‑2.34) |
1.92(1.77‑2.81) |
2.37(2.13‑3.53) |
2.76(2.43‑4.21) |
|
60-min |
0.421(0.335‑0.484) |
0.569(0.478‑0.688) |
0.849(0.764‑1.10) |
1.08(0.997‑1.45) |
1.41(1.32‑1.96) |
1.69(1.59‑2.39) |
2.01(1.88‑2.89) |
2.38(2.18‑3.47) |
2.93(2.64‑4.37) |
3.42(3.01‑5.20) |
|
2-hr |
0.489(0.400‑0.592) |
0.678(0.564‑0.825) |
1.09(0.904‑1.32) |
1.43(1.17‑1.72) |
1.93(1.56‑2.34) |
2.37(1.88‑2.86) |
2.86(2.23‑3.47) |
3.41(2.60‑4.17) |
4.25(3.15‑5.27) |
5.00(3.59‑6.29) |
|
3-hr |
0.529(0.446‑0.633) |
0.734(0.619‑0.891) |
1.17(0.976‑1.40) |
1.52(1.25‑1.81) |
2.05(1.67‑2.45) |
2.51(2.00‑3.00) |
3.03(2.37‑3.64) |
3.62(2.77‑4.38) |
4.54(3.37‑5.55) |
5.36(3.86‑6.65) |
|
6-hr |
0.634(0.541‑0.748) |
0.872(0.745‑1.04) |
1.35(1.15‑1.60) |
1.75(1.46‑2.06) |
2.32(1.92‑2.75) |
2.81(2.28‑3.35) |
3.35(2.67‑4.01) |
3.95(3.09‑4.76) |
4.90(3.72‑5.98) |
5.74(4.25‑7.10) |
|
12-hr |
0.726(0.624‑0.849) |
1.01(0.861‑1.18) |
1.55(1.32‑1.81) |
1.98(1.68‑2.31) |
2.60(2.17‑3.04) |
3.13(2.58‑3.68) |
3.69(2.99‑4.36) |
4.31(3.44‑5.14) |
5.23(4.05‑6.32) |
6.08(4.59‑7.44) |
|
24-hr |
0.838(0.720‑0.976) |
1.16(0.999‑1.35) |
1.78(1.53‑2.07) |
2.28(1.95‑2.64) |
3.00(2.53‑3.48) |
3.59(3.00‑4.19) |
4.24(3.49‑4.98) |
4.96(4.00‑5.87) |
6.00(4.73‑7.21) |
6.86(5.30‑8.37) |
|
2-day |
0.895(0.768‑1.02) |
1.24(1.07‑1.40) |
1.87(1.62‑2.12) |
2.38(2.05‑2.69) |
3.09(2.63‑3.51) |
3.68(3.09‑4.21) |
4.31(3.57‑5.03) |
4.99(4.06‑5.93) |
6.06(4.75‑7.28) |
6.93(5.34‑8.45) |
|
3-day |
0.925(0.797‑1.06) |
1.27(1.10‑1.45) |
1.92(1.66‑2.18) |
2.43(2.10‑2.75) |
3.15(2.69‑3.57) |
3.74(3.15‑4.27) |
4.37(3.64‑5.07) |
5.05(4.12‑5.95) |
6.07(4.81‑7.32) |
6.97(5.39‑8.50) |
|
4-day |
0.956(0.826‑1.09) |
1.31(1.13‑1.49) |
1.97(1.71‑2.23) |
2.48(2.14‑2.82) |
3.21(2.74‑3.64) |
3.80(3.21‑4.34) |
4.44(3.70‑5.11) |
5.12(4.19‑5.97) |
6.09(4.88‑7.35) |
7.00(5.44‑8.54) |
|
7-day |
1.05(0.908‑1.19) |
1.43(1.24‑1.63) |
2.14(1.86‑2.43) |
2.69(2.32‑3.04) |
3.44(2.94‑3.90) |
4.04(3.42‑4.61) |
4.68(3.92‑5.39) |
5.36(4.41‑6.24) |
6.33(5.12‑7.50) |
7.13(5.67‑8.58) |
|
10-day |
1.10(0.948‑1.26) |
1.50(1.29‑1.72) |
2.26(1.95‑2.57) |
2.84(2.45‑3.24) |
3.66(3.12‑4.17) |
4.33(3.64‑4.96) |
5.04(4.18‑5.83) |
5.80(4.73‑6.80) |
6.88(5.49‑8.21) |
7.76(6.11‑9.44) |
|
20-day |
1.26(1.08‑1.44) |
1.73(1.49‑1.97) |
2.60(2.24‑2.96) |
3.26(2.80‑3.70) |
4.17(3.55‑4.74) |
4.89(4.12‑5.60) |
5.66(4.71‑6.54) |
6.46(5.30‑7.55) |
7.60(6.10‑9.03) |
8.51(6.73‑10.3) |
|
30-day |
1.43(1.25‑1.62) |
1.97(1.71‑2.21) |
2.89(2.52‑3.26) |
3.57(3.11‑4.02) |
4.48(3.87‑5.05) |
5.19(4.44‑5.88) |
5.92(5.00‑6.77) |
6.68(5.58‑7.72) |
7.72(6.33‑9.06) |
8.62(6.97‑10.4) |
|
45-day |
1.57(1.36‑1.78) |
2.16(1.89‑2.43) |
3.20(2.79‑3.60) |
3.96(3.44‑4.45) |
4.97(4.30‑5.60) |
5.76(4.93‑6.52) |
6.57(5.56‑7.50) |
7.40(6.19‑8.54) |
8.52(7.00‑9.98) |
9.39(7.61‑11.1) |
|
60-day |
1.72(1.49‑1.94) |
2.36(2.05‑2.66) |
3.49(3.04‑3.93) |
4.30(3.74‑4.84) |
5.37(4.65‑6.04) |
6.19(5.31‑6.99) |
7.02(5.96‑7.99) |
7.87(6.60‑9.06) |
8.99(7.43‑10.5) |
9.87(8.06‑11.7) |
|
1 Precipitation frequency (PF) estimates in this table
are based on frequency analysis of partial
duration series (PDS).
Numbers in parenthesis are PF estimates at lower and upper bounds of the 90%
confidence interval. The probability that precipitation frequency estimates (for
a given duration and average recurrence
interval) will be greater than the upper bound (or less than the lower
bound) is 5%. Estimates at upper bounds are not checked against probable maximum
precipitation (PMP) estimates and may be higher than currently valid PMP values.
Please refer to NOAA Atlas 14 document for more information.
|
Imperial Irrigation District
(with emphasis on delivery reservoirs)
GetNexrad N0Q radar with Ag Area, Plots for Yesterday and Today:
GetNexrad 24-Hour and 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Maps and More Pics of the
Cadillac Desert:
7-Day Weather Forecast and ASCE Evapotranspiration:
Current Rainfall Gages, Raw and Adusted Radar, NWS 7-Day Rain Forecast,
Water Order Adjustment:
For the canal delivery operator, if the farmers haven't done their work
above for you, you could take the whole Ag Area runoff, reduce it by the
fraction of current canal capacity as the reduction to your order at Parker Dam
as shown here... maybe???
Brock Reservoir, Senator Wash, Imperial Dam, Lake Mead %Full, Ag Area
Rainfall Frequencies:
Another option for farmers to adjust their water oder is to watch
Senator Wash and Brock Reservoir inflows/outflows/level. Low Senator Wash level
and high Brock outflows mean the smart money is on a cut in water orders. Just
sayin... I don't know man, you may have it backwards... the smarter money may be
on the farmers.
Selection of Data Automated from the GetAccess Database (Pacific Time):
Imperial Ag Area Rainfall Depth-Duration Frequencies ( 10-year,
3-hour rainfall depth= 0.936" ):
|
POINT PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY (PF) ESTIMATES
WITH 90% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 6, Version 2
|
|
PDS-based precipitation frequency estimates with
90% confidence intervals (in inches)1 |
|
Duration |
Average recurrence interval (years) |
|
1 |
2 |
5 |
10 |
25 |
50 |
100 |
200 |
500 |
1000 |
|
5-min |
0.060(0.051‑0.072) |
0.094(0.079‑0.112) |
0.147(0.123‑0.176) |
0.197(0.164‑0.239) |
0.279(0.225‑0.351) |
0.354(0.279‑0.455) |
0.443(0.339‑0.584) |
0.548(0.408‑0.745) |
0.719(0.512‑1.02) |
0.877(0.602‑1.29) |
|
10-min |
0.086(0.073‑0.103) |
0.135(0.113‑0.161) |
0.210(0.177‑0.253) |
0.283(0.236‑0.343) |
0.400(0.322‑0.503) |
0.508(0.399‑0.652) |
0.635(0.486‑0.836) |
0.786(0.585‑1.07) |
1.03(0.734‑1.46) |
1.26(0.863‑1.85) |
|
15-min |
0.104(0.088‑0.125) |
0.163(0.137‑0.195) |
0.254(0.214‑0.306) |
0.342(0.285‑0.415) |
0.484(0.389‑0.608) |
0.614(0.483‑0.789) |
0.767(0.588‑1.01) |
0.951(0.707‑1.29) |
1.25(0.888‑1.77) |
1.52(1.04‑2.24) |
|
30-min |
0.144(0.122‑0.173) |
0.226(0.190‑0.271) |
0.353(0.297‑0.425) |
0.475(0.395‑0.576) |
0.672(0.540‑0.844) |
0.852(0.670‑1.10) |
1.07(0.816‑1.40) |
1.32(0.982‑1.79) |
1.73(1.23‑2.45) |
2.11(1.45‑3.10) |
|
60-min |
0.201(0.170‑0.241) |
0.315(0.266‑0.378) |
0.493(0.414‑0.592) |
0.663(0.552‑0.803) |
0.938(0.754‑1.18) |
1.19(0.935‑1.53) |
1.49(1.14‑1.96) |
1.84(1.37‑2.50) |
2.41(1.72‑3.43) |
2.94(2.02‑4.33) |
|
2-hr |
0.276(0.233‑0.331) |
0.412(0.347‑0.494) |
0.626(0.526‑0.752) |
0.832(0.693‑1.01) |
1.17(0.939‑1.47) |
1.48(1.16‑1.90) |
1.85(1.42‑2.44) |
2.29(1.71‑3.12) |
3.02(2.15‑4.29) |
3.70(2.54‑5.44) |
|
3-hr |
0.322(0.271‑0.385) |
0.471(0.397‑0.565) |
0.708(0.595‑0.851) |
0.936(0.779‑1.14) |
1.31(1.05‑1.64) |
1.65(1.30‑2.12) |
2.06(1.58‑2.72) |
2.56(1.90‑3.48) |
3.37(2.40‑4.78) |
4.12(2.83‑6.06) |
|
6-hr |
0.402(0.340‑0.482) |
0.584(0.493‑0.700) |
0.869(0.730‑1.05) |
1.14(0.951‑1.38) |
1.58(1.27‑1.99) |
1.99(1.57‑2.56) |
2.47(1.89‑3.26) |
3.05(2.27‑4.14) |
3.98(2.83‑5.64) |
4.84(3.32‑7.12) |
|
12-hr |
0.467(0.394‑0.558) |
0.688(0.580‑0.824) |
1.03(0.864‑1.24) |
1.35(1.12‑1.63) |
1.86(1.49‑2.33) |
2.31(1.82‑2.97) |
2.84(2.18‑3.75) |
3.47(2.58‑4.71) |
4.46(3.18‑6.33) |
5.36(3.68‑7.88) |
|
24-hr |
0.592(0.523‑0.684) |
0.890(0.785‑1.03) |
1.34(1.18‑1.55) |
1.75(1.53‑2.04) |
2.39(2.03‑2.88) |
2.96(2.46‑3.63) |
3.61(2.93‑4.53) |
4.35(3.45‑5.61) |
5.51(4.20‑7.39) |
6.54(4.83‑9.05) |
|
2-day |
0.703(0.621‑0.812) |
1.06(0.939‑1.23) |
1.60(1.41‑1.85) |
2.08(1.82‑2.43) |
2.83(2.40‑3.41) |
3.48(2.89‑4.27) |
4.21(3.42‑5.28) |
5.04(3.99‑6.49) |
6.31(4.80‑8.45) |
7.41(5.47‑10.3) |
|
3-day |
0.747(0.660‑0.862) |
1.13(0.998‑1.31) |
1.70(1.49‑1.97) |
2.21(1.93‑2.58) |
2.98(2.53‑3.59) |
3.65(3.04‑4.49) |
4.40(3.58‑5.53) |
5.25(4.16‑6.77) |
6.54(4.98‑8.76) |
7.66(5.65‑10.6) |
|
4-day |
0.784(0.693‑0.905) |
1.18(1.05‑1.37) |
1.77(1.56‑2.05) |
2.30(2.01‑2.69) |
3.10(2.63‑3.74) |
3.79(3.15‑4.65) |
4.56(3.70‑5.72) |
5.42(4.30‑6.99) |
6.74(5.13‑9.02) |
7.87(5.80‑10.9) |
|
7-day |
0.838(0.740‑0.967) |
1.25(1.11‑1.45) |
1.86(1.63‑2.15) |
2.40(2.10‑2.80) |
3.22(2.73‑3.88) |
3.93(3.26‑4.82) |
4.71(3.83‑5.91) |
5.59(4.43‑7.21) |
6.93(5.28‑9.28) |
8.08(5.96‑11.2) |
|
10-day |
0.869(0.768‑1.00) |
1.29(1.14‑1.49) |
1.91(1.68‑2.21) |
2.46(2.15‑2.87) |
3.29(2.79‑3.97) |
4.00(3.33‑4.91) |
4.79(3.89‑6.01) |
5.67(4.49‑7.31) |
7.00(5.33‑9.37) |
8.13(6.00‑11.3) |
|
20-day |
0.950(0.840‑1.10) |
1.42(1.26‑1.65) |
2.10(1.85‑2.43) |
2.69(2.35‑3.14) |
3.57(3.03‑4.30) |
4.31(3.58‑5.29) |
5.11(4.15‑6.41) |
5.99(4.74‑7.72) |
7.29(5.55‑9.76) |
8.38(6.18‑11.6) |
|
30-day |
1.00(0.884‑1.16) |
1.52(1.34‑1.75) |
2.24(1.97‑2.60) |
2.87(2.51‑3.35) |
3.79(3.21‑4.56) |
4.54(3.78‑5.58) |
5.35(4.35‑6.72) |
6.24(4.94‑8.04) |
7.52(5.73‑10.1) |
8.58(6.33‑11.9) |
|
45-day |
1.06(0.936‑1.22) |
1.63(1.44‑1.88) |
2.42(2.13‑2.80) |
3.09(2.70‑3.61) |
4.06(3.44‑4.89) |
4.84(4.02‑5.94) |
5.67(4.61‑7.12) |
6.56(5.19‑8.45) |
7.82(5.96‑10.5) |
8.85(6.53‑12.2) |
|
60-day |
1.13(1.00‑1.31) |
1.77(1.56‑2.04) |
2.63(2.32‑3.05) |
3.37(2.94‑3.93) |
4.40(3.73‑5.30) |
5.23(4.35‑6.42) |
6.10(4.95‑7.66) |
7.01(5.55‑9.04) |
8.30(6.32‑11.1) |
9.33(6.88‑12.9) |
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1 Precipitation frequency (PF) estimates in this table
are based on frequency analysis of partial
duration series (PDS).
Numbers in parenthesis are PF estimates at lower and upper bounds of the 90%
confidence interval. The probability that precipitation frequency estimates (for
a given duration and average recurrence
interval) will be greater than the upper bound (or less than the lower
bound) is 5%. Estimates at upper bounds are not checked against probable maximum
precipitation (PMP) estimates and may be higher than currently valid PMP values.
Please refer to NOAA Atlas 14 document for more information.
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Intellicast's Current Radar:
PAST EVENTS:
Jan 21, 2021 -- GetNexrad A2M MRMS Radar with Ag Area and 10 Desert Runoff Subbasins, Plots are
Yesterday and Today Flows:
Jan 21, 2021 -- GetNexrad N0Q radar with Ag Area, Plots for Yesterday and Today:
Overview of GetRealtime:
(*) Some of our current values may not reflect actual conditions. Whud ya
want... a fix it again Tony?
Important Note: Nothing on this page is intended as
interpretation of any legal authority such as water rights and supply. This page
is intended solely as a demonstration of automated techniques in flood potential
monitoring and deliveries. The reader assumes all risk for any damages
whatsoever in connection with the access, use, quality, or performance of the
supplied data just so you know.
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